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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 40 °
• Low: 36 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 41 °
• Low: 34 °
• Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 43 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance of Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 43 °
• Low: 34 °
• Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 43 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance of Snow

Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
249 PM akst sun Feb 12 2012 


Short term...the latest satellite imagery shows showers moving 
over the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska this afternoon. There is a strong 
low pressure system that is lifting NE south of the Alaska Penn that 
will eventually weaken to a trough and be over the central Gulf by 
Monday afternoon. There is an associated warm front with the low 
that will mainly affect the northern Gulf areas late tonight into 
Monday as the front will be slow to move west to east. There is not 
much wind over land areas this afternoon with the exception to 
the far northern Inner Channels where gusts to 35 miles per hour have been 
occurring. Over the marine waters there is small craft winds over 
Lynn Canal but the rest of the forecast area is seeing south 
winds generally less than 20 knots. The west to southwest winds over 
eastern Gulf begin to back around to the southeast this evening as the 
warm front begins to drifts into the central Gulf. 


The showers over northern half will diminish this evening and 
may be mixed with snow at times with very cold air aloft. The 
southern areas will see the scattered showers dissipated also 
this evening with the upper ridge moving over the area and 
stabilize the atmosphere. This will also create some partly 
cloudy skies over the southern areas late this evening but it 
will not last long as the ridge will continue into Canada and 
onshore flow will increase. The northern Gulf coastal areas will 
see the mix of rain and snow showers this evening become more 
steady rain late tonight as the warm front approaches from the 
SW. The rain may be heavy at times through Monday with strong 
vertical motion. Rain with some snow in places over the norther 
half of the Inner Channels will be likely mainly in the morning 
on Monday as the upper trough drifts into the central Gulf the 
upper level flow over the Panhandle will become southeast. This flow 
pattern is not that great for precipitation but for clouds but there 
will remain a chance in to the afternoon. 


The warm front will increase the winds over the norther Gulf to 
gales late tonight with a barrier jet developing. These gales 
force winds will spread southeast into the eastern Gulf through Monday as 
the surface trough moves into the central Gulf. The small craft and 
gusty winds over the far northern Inner Channels will remain 
through Monday morning but as the surface ridge begins to drift into 
Canada the pressure gradient will relax along with the winds. The 
winds over east/west channels will increase through tonight and through 
Monday as the surface trough/warm front moves into the central to 
eastern Gulf. The winds will increase to small craft by late 
tonight and persist into the afternoon. 


There is about average forecast confidence in the forecast for 
the next 24hrs. Used a blend of the 12z ec and some 12z NAM for 
the short term portion of the forecast. 


&& 


Long term...long range models are struggling with a trough 
entering the eastern Gulf on late Monday. Due to the 
uncertainty...refreshed the inherited forecast with the European model (ecmwf) 
through late Wednesday. The European model (ecmwf) was initialized well and held 
the incoming trough a little slower than the GFS and NAM. The 
European model (ecmwf) also shows somewhat weaker progress and quickly brings the 
trough as an open wave during the Tuesday evening as a ridge 
builds across the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska through 
Wednesday morning. Clouds will become thicker by Monday night into 
Tuesday with categorical probability of precipitation spreading from Yakutat southeast to 
the central Panhandle coastal sections through Tuesday morning. 
Precipitation will be mostly rain but mixed with snow across the 
northern areas. Likely probability of precipitation will continue across Southeast Alaska 
through Tuesday evening and the precipitation will be mostly rain. 


Model differences become even larger from Wednesday night 
Onward. Stayed with the HPC outputs. The HPC guidance appeared a 
heavy blending of the European model (ecmwf) and its ensemble means. With such a 
big model difference...it is not practical to depict small scale 
features...but there is a certain level of predictability for the 
pattern changes in synoptic scale. While the main upper low 
staying in the Bering and mainly upper ridge moving eastward 
across the forecast domain through second half of the week...a 
mean upper trough will eventually move over the eastern Gulf 
toward the weekend with colder air embedded. Tweaked maximum/min 
temperatures a bit cooler for days 6...7 and 8. Pop fields were 
remained with the broad HPC outputs. 


&& 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...none. 
Marine...Gale Warning for pkz042-043-051-052. 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz012-013-021-022-033-035-041-053. 


&& 


$$ 


Abj/ahn