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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 61 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 66 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
417 am CDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Discussion... 
upper trough is moving just south of the County Warning Area this morning. A few 
thunderstorms have developed across SW la and have been drifting north. 
Until the trough axis shifts east of the area...isolated 
convection will remain possible. However...precipitation chances are 
rapidly diminishing as the trough fills and continues to slide 
south and east...so will keep slight chance probability of precipitation in the southern zones 
through 18z today. 


Ridging aloft will lead to quiet weather...dry conditions...and 
warming temperatures through the weekend. Afternoon highs should be 
pushing 90f or better across much of the area by Friday. Upper 
flow is prognosticated to become split across the eastern Continental U.S. During the 
weekend. County Warning Area will be under the SW edge of the split flow and will 
be primarily influenced by an upper ridge over northern mx. Middle level 
jet will remain across the northern plains...so dry weather will 
continue through Sunday. 


Medium range models continue to advertise a breakdown in the high 
over low block over the eastern Continental U.S. Late in the weekend. Upper 
trough currently moving over the Great Basin will act as a kicker 
on the Ohio Valley high setting things in motion. Strengthening of 
the western ridge and the eastern trough will amplify the northwesterly flow aloft 
over the area. This should help to bring thunderstorms into the area as a 
cold front moves southeast through the Southern Plains early next week. This 
is typically a very favorable for our area this time of year and 
confidence is increasing especially given the decent agreement 
between the models. Questions still linger regarding timing and 
quality of middle level moisture return given short recovery time. 
Therefore...have opted to maintain slight chance probability of precipitation but these 
may need to be raised later...especially across southeast OK/SW Arkansas. /09/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
water vapor imagery this morning showing our upper level trough 
spinning across central la...continuing to make good eastward 
progress. This system should continue to fill and open up as it 
moves into southeast la by this afternoon. Still dealing with some isolated 
showers across portions of northwest la but these are currently south our 
our shv/mlu terminals. Cloud cover is mostly confined to 10kft and 
above at this time in association with the upper level trough but descent 
moisture in the 4-6kft level will likely result in a descent cumulus 
field that should develop with just a little heating today. 


At least some rainfall was felt across most terminal locations on 
Tuesday...except at the eld/mlu terminals. As a result...we are 
beginning to see some MVFR visibility obstructions at txk/shv/ggg 
and lfk terminals. Expect this to be brief this morning with p6sm 
returning after 14z. With clearing skies this evening...may see 
some sporadic MVFR visibilities once again across the terminals... 
mainly after midnight towards sunrise Thursday morning. 


Winds again today with be variable...mainly less than 8kts before 
becoming near calm overnight. /13/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 87 60 89 62 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 
mlu 87 60 89 62 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 
deq 87 58 87 59 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 
txk 87 59 88 61 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 
eld 87 57 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 
tyr 85 61 87 63 88 / 10 10 10 10 10 
ggg 85 59 87 61 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 
lfk 85 60 89 62 90 / 20 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


09/13