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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 61 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
230 am MST Wednesday may 16 2012 




Synopsis...weather disturbances passing to the north of Arizona 
will bring breezy to windy conditions to portions of northern 
Arizona each afternoon through Friday. Lighter winds are expected 
over the weekend as high pressure builds. Above average high 
temperatures will continue. 


&& 


Discussion...a weak low pressure system was centered just north of 
the Arizona/Utah during the early morning hours...heading eastward. 
For today...this low will continue to head eastward with the main 
impact across northern Arizona being southwest winds at 10 to 20 miles per hour 
gusting to over 30 miles per hour at times. The center of the low will be 
associated with colder middle-level air and this will bring a slight 
chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Arizona/Utah border 
this afternoon as daytime heating progresses. The low will head east 
tonight with high pressure rapidly moving across Arizona on 
Thursday. Not much change...perhaps a bit warmer during the day. 
Otherwise...gusty southwest winds will continue as another weather 
disturbance approaches Arizona late in the day on Thursday. 


For Friday...a stronger weather disturbance will move across the 
western United States. The main impact for northern Arizona will be 
strong and gusty southwest winds. Looking at sustained winds of 20 
to 30 miles per hour with gust well into the 40 miles per hour range...especially from the 
Mogollon Rim northward. Once again...with the cool middle-level air 
associated with the disturbance...there will be a slight chance of 
showers and thunderstorms along the Arizona/Utah border. 


High pressure will build over the state late in the weekend bringing 
lighter winds...warmer temperatures...and continued dry conditions 
through early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 12z package...overall VFR conditions expected 
for the next 24 hours. However areas of smoke and smoke layers aloft 
will persist near wildfires. A prep from today at 0455z inw upper air 
/ovinw360025 /tm 0455 /fl075 /tp b407 /rm heavy ash like flying 
through heavy snow. 


Light surface winds through 18z then SW 15-20kt gusts to 30kt. Winds 
shifting to west-southwest late in the afternoon north of the Mogollon Rim and 
diminishing after sunset. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...for today...a weak low pressure system will move 
eastward along the Arizona Utah border. Very low humidities 
will continue across the area. The fastest wind speeds this 
afternoon are expected across the northern halves of Apache and 
Navajo counties and approach critical thresholds. On Thursday...a 
stronger low will approach Arizona. Strengthening southwest flow 
aloft will bring near critical fire weather thresholds to western 
Coconino County Thursday afternoon. Thursday night...20 foot winds 
should southwesterly along the higher terrain from Happy Jack to the 
Kaibab Plateau...with poor overnight relative humidity recovery. 


Friday through Sunday...on Friday...strong southwest winds and low 
humidities are forecast and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for 
much of the Northland. For the weekend...warm and dry conditions are 
expected with lighter winds. 


&& 


Fgz watches/warnings/advisories... 


Fire Weather Watch Friday 11 am MST until 8 PM MST for 
azz106>118-139-140-161800. 


&& 


$$ 


Public.........McCollum 
aviation.......dl 
fire weather...dl 


For northern Arizona weather information visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff