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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 40 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 67 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 45 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona 
947 PM MST sun Feb 12 2012 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will continue to exit the region and dry weather is 
expected Monday...but a stronger and colder weather disturbance will 
move into the region Tuesday. A threat of showers will develop 
area-wide Tuesday...along with much colder temperatures. Improving 
conditions are expected on Wednesday...followed by another area of 
low pressure Thursday and a slight chance of showers to the deserts. 
Mostly clear and warmer weather is expected next Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Discussion... 
weak low pressure continues to depart the area. Cloud cover and 
scattered showers that were in place across northern Arizona earlier 
today are slowly decaying as of 04z...but with most of the activity 
north of the forecast area I elected to only mention a chance of 
sprinkles across southern Gila County after midnight. I don\t 
envision much in the way of accumulating rainfall across the higher 
terrain east of Phoenix...only a few sprinkles here and there as the 
strongest isentropic forcing continues to move away. 


Meanwhile incoming 00z model data continues to suggest dry 
conditions through much of the day Monday with increasing precipitation 
chances across southeast California Monday night and south-central 
Arizona on Tuesday. This fits well with the inherited forecast and 
no major changes are necessary. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
Monday... 
clearing skies are expected Monday as a break in the pattern 
develops ahead of the next stronger...colder...and wetter storm on 
Tuesday. 


The approaching strong cold front will also develop increasing wind 
in southeast California Monday afternoon...with gusts between 35 and 45 miles per hour 
by early evening...especially over the Imperial Valley...Salton 
Sea...and Joshua Tree National Park. A Wind Advisory is posted for 
this area Monday. 


Tuesday and Tuesday night... 
a colder...stronger...and a little wetter Pacific storm will move 
into the region late Monday night and Tuesday. Model timing of this 
system is similar...however the European model is slightly deeper 
and stronger than the GFS. This makes a huge difference with respect 
to precipitation amounts and snow levels. We slightly favor the European 
model...which produces a threat of showers area-wide Tuesday. 
However...most storm dynamics and moisture will be directed into 
south central Arizona...from Phoenix east...where the best chance of 
showers will develop. 


Although the European model is wetter than the GFS...moisture levels 
are still on the low side. Snow levels by Tuesday morning will fall 
to near 3000 feet over the mountains of Joshua Tree National 
Park...however not much snow accumulation is expected under brief 
showers. The snow level in south central Arizona from Phoenix east to 
Globe/Miami will fall from 5500 feet Tuesday morning to near 4000 
feet by late in the day. This will be a showery pattern...and since 
its a relatively dry storm...not much snowfall is expected. Perhaps 
1 or 2 inches of dry snow above 5000 feet in southern Gila County. 


Clearing is expected Tuesday evening over southeast California and southwest 
Arizona...but precipitation chances will be slow to diminish Tuesday night in 
south central Arizona. 


Wednesday... 
partly cloudy and cool weather is expected Wednesday ahead of 
another weather disturbance for Thursday. 


Thursday... 
another weather disturbance is forecast to deepen somewhere over the 
region. Models this far out in time are still highly variable with 
the storm track. For now we will continue to mention only a slight 
chance of showers area-wide Thursday. 


Friday and Saturday... 
mostly clear and warmer. 


&& 


Aviation... 
southeast California...southwest and south central Arizona... 
including kphx...kiwa...kipl and kblh... 


Expect mostly light diurnal winds and good visibilities for 
Phoenix/kiwa with increasing low...middle and high clouds during Monday 
afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front and low pressure system 
that will move into western Arizona beginning late Monday afternoon 
and evening. This same system will produce breezy to occasionally 
windy west and southwesterly winds at kipl and breezy conditions at 
kblh by early to middle Monday afternoon. 


Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
Tuesday through Saturday... 
cooler temperatures and higher humidity levels area expected as a 
series of low pressure systems move through the region. The weather 
pattern will remain cool and unsettled...with precipitation chances 
lingering through Thursday. Models sport widely different solutions 
for the Friday-Saturday time frame...so generally settling on drier 
conditions for southeast California...southwest and south-central 
Arizona...and little change in the cooler temperature trend for the 
lower deserts. 


&& 


Psr watches/warnings/advisories... 


Arizona...none. 


California...Wind Advisory from 1 PM PST Monday to midnight PST Monday night 
caz030-032-033. 


&& 


$$ 


National Weather Service Phoenix is on the internet at 


Weather.Gov/Phoenix 


Discussion...leins/vasquez/cb 
aviation...Sawtelle 
fire weather...Meyers