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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 36 °
• Low: 22 °
• Snow Showers

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 38 °
• Low: 20 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 43 °
• Low: 29 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 31 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Medford or 
842 PM PST sun Feb 12 2012 


Have adjusted down snow levels across the region throguh 
tonight/tomorrow morning's event. Snow is visible at Hayes Hill and 
west of the Camas Valley...which is good agreement with the nam12 
soundings...and have adjusted the rest of the event to the nam12 as 
well. 


Short term...the winter weather advisories remain in effect for 
this evening through Monday morning with an inch or more of snow 
expected at elevations above 2000 feet...and on Monday morning less 
than an inch possible as low as 1500 feet. 


Snow levels are presently around 4500 to 5000 feet but they will 
steadily drop this evening and should be at 2000 feet late this 
evening. Light showers ahead of the cold front have moved into the 
west side. The cold front looks to be positioned just west of the 
coastal waters...about 65 nm offshore at 3 PM PST. Inland winds 
do not look to become especially strong but it will be breezy with 
northwest winds over the higher terrain and east side behind the 
front on Monday. 


Early Monday afternoon...precipitation will taper off to light 
snow flurries that will persist through the evening and be most 
numerous at northwest facing slopes such as Siskiyou Summit on 
Interstate 5. These flurries will be due to the passage of a 
trailing upper level trough southward along the Cascade crest. 


Model consistency has been well below average regarding the 
forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday. The 12z GFS and European model (ecmwf) have 
come into better agreement with another upper trough tracking 
southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska then reaching the Oregon coast 
Tuesday and weakening over our area Tuesday night. As a result...I 
have raised probability of precipitation for Tuesday afternoon and night. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts do 
not look to be significant. But...a further raise of probability of precipitation may be 
necessary if the models continue to show this faster and farther 
eastward progression of the trough. In giving some credence to the 
latest data...probability of precipitation were lowered for Wednesday with a brief period 
of ridging expected. 




Long term...(thursday-sunday)...model consistency remains low and 
ensemble spreads remain moderate to high today, leading to 
continued low confidence in the extended forecast. The ec/GFS are 
in the closest agreement, so a compromise between the two is the 
order of the day. The Gem is an outlier on several important 
features and is generally ignored. 


The overall pattern is one of moderately progressive flow across the 
northeast Pacific with storms moving into the Pacific northwest. 
There is fair agreement that a system will skirt by largely to 
our north on Thursday, but it will probably push a weak warm front 
through the area. This will bring a little precipitation to our coast 
and northern areas, but nothing to write home about. 


There is a system of possibly much greater impact advertised for 
Friday through the weekend. All models advertise a closed low 
forming offshore Friday and moving onshore over the weekend. The 
question is where it comes ashore. The GFS is on the eastern 
extreme and shows a direct hit to the pacnw (including or and 
norcal). The Gem is on the western edge of the envelope. The truth 
probably lies somewhere in the middle, like the European model (ecmwf) solution. At 
any rate, there is an elevated chance of significant precipitation over 
Oregon and norcal from Friday through next weekend. The system is 
not cold enough for low land impacts, but snow levels could fall 
as low as 3500 feet, providing much needed snow to ski areas, but 
also producing impacts at pass level. The forecast we have in 
place already depicts these trends, and given the generally 
sketchy performance of models with closed lows, I cannot see much 
room for improvement, so will be making only subtle adjustments 
again today. -Wright 




&& 


Aviation...a cold front is approaching the coast this afternoon and 
light precipitation has begun to spread into southwest Oregon. Flow ahead of 
the system is not sufficient to produce the usual downslope effect 
over inland valleys...thus rain should spread inland virtually 
unimpeded through the evening. Expecting conditions to deteriorate 
with MVFR ceilings as rain develops on west side. Occasional IFR ceilings 
will be possible through the night as rain intensity varies. 
Dropping snow levels will lead to moderate to heavy snow and 
widespread obscurations in the mountains tonight through tomorrow 
morning. A mix of rain and snow will spread to the east side late 
this evening, but quickly change to snow. A period of widespread 
IFR (occasional lifr) ceilings and visible in snow is likely across the 
east side late tonight into tomorrow morning. Prevailing 
conditions will improve area-wide tomorrow morning, but 
considerable shower activity will be present much of the day. 
-Wright 




&& 


Mfr watches/warnings/advisories... 
or...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am PST 
Monday for orz029>031. 
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am PST 
Monday above 2000 feet for orz023>026. 
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am PST 
Monday for orz027-028. 


California...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am PST 
Monday for caz082-083. 
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 am PST Monday above 2500 feet 
for caz080. 
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 am PST 
Monday for caz081. 
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 am PST 
Monday for caz084-085. 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM 
PST Monday for pzz350-356. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening 
to 4 am PST Thursday for pzz350-356. 
Hazardous seas warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM PST 
Monday 
for pzz370-376. 
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 am PST Monday for 
pzz370-376. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 PM PST this 
evening for pzz370-376. 


$$ 


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