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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 40 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 65 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 47 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada 
733 PM PST sun Feb 12 2012 


Synopsis...another storm will begin to impact the area Monday with 
gusty winds across the Mojave Desert and snow developing over mainly 
the Sierra and southern Great Basin. Rain and snow will become more 
widespread Monday night through Tuesday as the storm moves into 
southern Nevada. Heavy snow is possible late Monday through Tuesday 
over over the higher terrain of southern Nevada and far northwest 
Arizona. Temperatures will drop to well below normal by Tuesday. 
After a brief respite Tuesday night...another storm will move into 
the area on Wednesday bringing a chance of rain and snow while 
keeping temperatures below normal. 
&& 


Update...satellite loop and area radars show one storm exiting 
stage right...with clouds confined to areas east of a line from 
Rachel to Bullhead City...and another storm entering stage 
left...with thicker clouds just beginning to impinge on the 
northwest corner of the County Warning Area. Pop and sky grids have all this well in 
hand...and no update planned this evening. 
&& 


Previous discussion... 
306 PM PST sun Feb 12 2012 


Short term...clouds and some showers were observed this afternoon 
as expected across mainly Lincoln...Clark and Mohave counties. This 
activity will diminish this evening as the trough responsible moves 
east of the area. Brief ridging will be over the area overnight 
leading to generally dry conditions although there could be some 
snow showers develop near the Sierra crest as moisture begins to 
increase ahead of the next low. This low...which is considerably 
stronger than the one exiting tonight...will be centered over 
central California by Monday afternoon. Rain and snow will develop 
ahead of the low in an area of upper difluence with the best 
combination of dynamics and moisture across the northern zones where 
we have likely probability of precipitation going. I kept a slight chance mentioned over 
portions of the Mojave Desert but the low center will likely be a 
bit too far north to generate measurable rain there. The main impact 
for the Mojave Desert Monday will be increasing south to southwest 
winds. Much of San Bernardino and southern Inyo County across to 
western and southern Clark County and southern Mohave County should 
see fairly widespread gusts between 40 and 45 miles per hour and a Wind 
Advisory has been issued. The lower elevations of Lake Mead and the 
Colorado River will see somewhat lighter winds but should see strong 
enough winds to justify the lake Wind Advisory which was also 
issued. The strong winds will decrease once the low moves into 
roughly southern Nevada around midnight Monday night. Rain and snow 
should become more widespread with the low moving over southern 
Nevada Monday night and Tuesday with heavy snow still a possibility 
in the mountains of southern Nevada and northern Mohave County. 
There are still some uncertainties with the track of the low and 
exact locations of the heaviest precipitation and the models are 
indicating a pretty good dry slot. The location of this dry slot 
differs with each model and keeps my confidence in pinpointing heavy 
snow rather low. Therefore I did not change the Winter Storm Watch 
to a warning or advisory. Hopefully things will become more clear 
after the next model run or two. Snow levels will start out around 
5000 feet Monday but will lower to between 3500 and 4000 feet Monday 
night as the low moves overhead. Obviously temperatures will be well 
below normal Tuesday under the low. Ridging will push in behind the 
exiting low Tuesday night with precipitation ending 


Long term...another shortwave is shown by the models to dig south 
Wednesday morning...but the models are still showing pretty big 
differences in the track of the low. 12z European model (ecmwf) was much further west 
and closer in line with the 12z GFS...but now the 18z GFS is further 
east which is now more in line with the previous 00z European model (ecmwf). Am 
leaning with a more westerly track and the grids reflect this 
trend...but have also raised probability of precipitation over the entire area to account 
for the differences. Once the low exits the area Thursday afternoon 
weak high pressure is forecast to build over the area briefly on 
Friday as another system moves into the Pacific northwest Saturday 
which looks to affect the region next Sunday. Kept temperatures 
below normal Wednesday and Thursday...but are expected to climb to 
slightly above normal Friday and Saturday. 


Aviation...McCarran...southwest to occasional west winds expected 
into this evening with speeds generally below 8kts. Clouds 
few-sct070 with bkn110 into this evening along with isolated showers 
mainly over the mountains. Clouds will dissipate this evening with 
few-sct110 and continuing overnight. South to southwest winds will 
increase Monday after 20z with speeds around 15-25kts. 


For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast 
California...isolated showers over southern Lincoln...Clark and 
Mohave counties expecting into this evening as an area of low 
pressure moves east. Ceilings down to 7k feet in the eastern half of the 
region with few-sct100-120 over the west. Another system moving into 
the region Monday will help generate gusty southwest to west winds 
over San Bernardino and Mohave counties with gusts over 35kts. 
Elsewhere winds will be around 15-25kts. Scattered showers with ceilings 
down to 5k feet at times during the day along with some High 
Mountain peak obscurations. 
&& 


Vef watches/warnings/advisories... 
Nevada...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday 
afternoon for nvz014-015-018-019. 
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 am Monday to midnight PST Monday 
night for nvz021. 
Wind Advisory from 10 am Monday to midnight PST Monday night 
for nvz017-022. 
Arizona...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday 
afternoon for azz001. 
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 am Monday to 1 am MST Tuesday for 
azz036. 
Wind Advisory from 11 am Monday to 1 am MST Tuesday for azz003. 
California...Wind Advisory from 10 am Monday to midnight PST Monday night 
for caz522>525. 
&& 


$$ 


Morgan/Harrison/gorelow 


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