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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 39 °
• Rain Showers

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 41 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 57 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 39 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
529 PM PST sun Feb 12 2012 


Discussion...as of 2:00 PM PST Sunday...coastal radars are 
picking up rain entering northwest California at this hour. This is 
associated with a system still off the coast that will move 
through our County Warning Area tonight. Latest guidance varies little from 
previous runs so still looks like the front will push into the 
North Bay late in the afternoon...down to sf Bay this 
evening...and through Monterey/San Benito tonight. Moisture 
associate with this system is not impressive so totals going into 
tomorrow should mostly be light with urban ares expected to pick 
up less than 1/4 of an inch. Even higher elevation coastal spots 
should receive less than 1/2 an inch. Post-frontal showers are 
possible and with plenty of cold air advection snow levels will start to drop and 
could be locally under 3000 feet by Monday. Put in a mention of a 
rain snow mix for parts of interior Monterey and San Benito 
counties where the cold air will have the best shot at interacting 
with moisture. 


Behind the front increasing 925 mb speeds will combine with 
stronger surface pressure gradients to produce locally gusty north 
to northwest winds. One slight change is the suite of models has 
slightly backed off on the winds both over the land and water. In 
addition...the highest speeds have shifted just to the west so now 
it looks like we will not need any advisories over land. Still 
think that winds will become gusty Monday (40 mph) along the San 
Mateo coastline plus adjacent higher elevations along with Point 
Reyes. 


Model guidance is far from cut-and-dry for the remainder of week 
with some of the solutions depicting at least two decent shots of 
rain while others keep US mostly dry for the week. The first shot 
would by Tuesday/Wednesday as a system drops from the pacnw close to 
our area. Even the most bullish of solutions indicate less than 
1/10" of rain from this. After a couple days dry weather due to 
ridging from the Pacific...the second possible bout of rain one 
would be Friday into late Saturday as another system drops from 
the pacnw. The one over the weekend has more moisture to use plus 
a more favorable trajectory...therefore probability of precipitation were increased a bit 
for that period. Rainfall totals are not expected to amount to 
much with this system. 


It is Worth noting that even if we do not receive any additional 
rainfall the hemispheric pattern will be favorable for cool 
weather and a close system will provide ample clouds. The warm 
sunny weather we had last week is not anticipated to return the 
next 7 days. 


&& 


Aviation......as of 5:00 PM PST Sunday...low clouds have 
persisted along the coast all day including the mry Bay area. 
Middle and high clouds cover the sfo Bay area. Patchy MVFR ceilings and 
drizzle are being reported in the East Bay as of 01z but this is 
expected to be short-lived. Main rain from the approqaching storm 
will arrive in the sfo Bay area 04-05z and the mry Bay area 07-08z. 
Ceilings lowering but remaining in the VFR range until the front 
passes after 08-09z when ceilings will drop to MVFR range. Winds will 
shift to the south to southwest just ahead of frontal passage. 
West to northwest winds increasing after frontal passage. 


Vicinity of ksfo...ceilings lowering but remaining VFR through 08z. 
Becoming MVFR after 08z after frontal passage. Light rain 
beginning around 04-05z. Winds may switch briefly to south to 
southwest between 04z and 08z ahead of frontal passage but will 
switch to west to northwest after 08z. Winds will ramp up later 
tonight with gusts over 20 knots by Monday morning. 


Ksfo bridge approach....similar to sfo. 


Monterey Bay area terminals...MVFR ceilings. Light rain beginning 
around 07-08z continuing through 13-15z. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Arena to Pigeon pt 10-60 nm from 9 PM 
Small Craft Advisory...pt pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 2 am 
Small Craft Advisory...Pigeon pt to pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 1 am 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Arena to pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 am 
Small Craft Advisory...pt Reyes to Pigeon pt 0-10 nm from 3 am 
Small Craft Advisory...rough bar advisory for sf bar from 7 PM 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: Bell/strobin 
aviation/marine: west pi