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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado 
512 am MDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Short term... 
(today and tonight) 


..lightning threat higher than normal for today... 


Currently... 


Over the County Warning Area...except for some hi cirrus associated with an upper 
low that was moving towards the region from UT/NV...skies were clear. 
Temperatures at 3 am were generally in the 40s across most of the 
region...including the valleys and plains. Temperatures were in the 30s in 
the mountains 


Today... 


The low over Utah will continue to move east and the center of the 
low should be located along the Colorado/Utah border by 00z later today. 
There is very little moisture associated with this low...but temperatures 
aloft associated with the system are on the cool side. Likewise...as 
the low moves towards the region...lapse rates will approach dry 
adiabatic values over most of the County Warning Area by this afternoon. 
Likewise...I anticipate quite a few high based thunderstorms over 
the mountainous regions during peak heating. Given the limited 
moisture in the column...I do not expect much measurable quantitative precipitation forecast...but 
we will see lots of clouds...occasional cloud-to-ground flashes and gusty winds 
associated with the virga showers. The best chance of measurable 
precipitation will be over the higher elevations along the Continental Divide. 


Given that we will see quite a few high based thunderstorms that 
will produce little rainfall...and the fact that we have not seen 
much lightning this year...the lightning threat will be higher than 
normal for today...especially for the mountains and possibly El Paso 
County. 


It will be quite warm today and it will be breezy most regions. Maximum 
temperatures across the plains will be approaching 90f with 70s and 80s in 
the valleys. South winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with gusts to 30 will be 
widespread. Stronger gusts will be possible with the evaporating 
rainfall associated with the thunderstorms. 


Long term... 
(thursday through tuesday) 


After a unseasonably warm and relatively dry Thursday and Friday 
..it still appears that an upswing in unsettled meteorological 
conditions(including the potential for some strong to possibly 
severe thunderstorms due to increased deeper atmospheric 
moisture...CAPES...helicity and shears) should be noted over 
portions of the forecast district this weekend as upper wave and 
surface cold front impacts forecast district. 


Recent computer simulations having some issues in location of how 
far north or south relatively potent incoming upper disturbance 
will be with the 00z/16th European model (ecmwf) and the 06z/16th gfs40 being 
further north than the 06z/16th nam12 solution. Weather forecast office Pueblo will 
continue to monitor real-time data and forecast model 
soundings/computer simulations closely. 


All solutions however support increasing precipitation 
potential...especially northern sections from later Saturday into at 
least Saturday night...as northerly surge pushes into County warning forecast area by late 
Friday night/early Saturday morning. This northerly surge should 
be pushing into northeastern New Mexico by Saturday morning. 


In addition to the increased precipitation potential this 
weekend...also anticipate that maximum temperatures will drop to 
near or slightly below climatological averages this weekend. 


Drier conditions as well as warmer temperatures should be noted 
over the forecast district by early next week as southwesterly to 
zonal upper flow develops over southern Colorado. Finally...gusty 
gradient winds are still anticipated from later Friday into 
Friday night. 


&& 


Aviation... 


VFR conditions are expected at all 3 taf sites...kcos...kpub and 
kals next 24h. Synoptic southerly winds of 15 to 25 knts will occur 
by afternoon at all 3 sites. Isolated high based thunderstorms and rain will be possible 
at all 3 sites this afternoon and early evening...and wind gusts to 
40 knts will be possible. The best chance of virga wind gusts will 
be at kcos during the 22-02z time frame. 


&& 


Pub watches/warnings/advisories... 


None. 


&& 


$$