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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 46 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 41 °
• Chance of Rain

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 43 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver Colorado 
254 am MDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Short term...upper level trough will slowly move across Utah 
today. Southwest flow aloft will increase the moisture at the middle 
and upper level of the atmosphere. This will result in more middle 
and high clouds this morning. The lower level of the airmass will 
remain on the dry side with surface dew points in the 20s and 30s. 
Airmass will be slightly unstable with surface based convective available potential energy up to 
500 j/kg. The increased moisture...instability and lift from the 
approaching trough will trigger scattered to isolated 
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Because of the dry 
lower levels...measurable rainfall will be spotty and light. 
Biggest concern will be gusty outflow winds from the 
thunderstorms. The strongest wind gusts may approach 50 miles per hour. 


Surface trough will form along the Front Range today. This will 
produce gusty southerly winds across the eastern plains. By 
afternoon...winds will be sustained at 15 to 25 miles per hour and gust to 
35 miles per hour. The gusty winds combined with relative humidities 
bottoming out in the lower teens will cause red flag conditions. 
Temperatures will again be warm with highs close to yesterday's 
readings. 


Long term...for Thursday...the upper level trough axis will shift 
to the east of Colorado by midday with weak downward middle level qg 
descent in the afternoon. The models however still indicate enough cape 
in the afternoon for a slight chance of some high based 
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings continue to advertise in inverted v 
type profile. Temperatures on Thursday will remain well above 
normal with highs in the lower 80s for Denver. Thursday night and 
Friday...the flow aloft will transition to southwesterly ahead of 
the next upper level trough. The models develop weak middle level qg 
ascent in the afternoon. A developing Lee trough at the surface will 
enhance the southerly winds in the afternoon. Increasing middle and upper 
level moisture with very warm afternoon temperatures in the middle 80s 
should again produce more high based thunderstorms. Cloud cover 
in the afternoon may be enough to take the edge of the temperatures after 
21z. The middle level trough axis in prognosticated to be over central Utah 
at 00z Saturday and is then forecast to move into eastern Colorado Saturday 
morning 12z-18z. Weak middle level qg ascent as well as some middle 
level instability should allow for showers Friday night...especially 
in the mountains. A cold front associated with the trough will 
push through the County warning forecast area Saturday morning around 12z with 
anticyclonic upslope developing through the day. Spatial cross- 
sections from the GFS indicate the northeasterly winds deepening to around 
700 mb. Temperatures on Saturday will be near normal...10-15 
degrees cooler than Friday. Should see elevated thunderstorms 
developing along the foothills and Palmer Divide Saturday 
afternoon...then gradually shift into the northeast plains late in the 
day. Air mass may be too stable across the northeast plains...so thunderstorms 
should be short lived. It will remain cooler through Sunday... 
with at least a slight chance of thunderstorms developing in and 
near the foothills and Palmer Divide in the afternoon...then shifting 
into the northeast plains. The upper level ridge axis will be 
parked over western Colorado by 00z Monday. The ridge axis will shift 
over eastern Colorado for Monday with temperatures climbing back toward 
80 in the afternoon. The flow aloft will be drier and more west/southwesterly 
by Tuesday...so will go with the trend of warmer and drier grids for 
that time frame...with highs well into the 80s. 




&& 


Aviation...southerly winds will become light after sunrise and 
may shift easterly between 15-21z. Airmass will become slightly 
unstable this afternoon. Isolated high based thunderstorms will 
form. Main threat with these storms will be gusty outflow winds 
where gusts may reach 45 knots. Best chance for the storms will be 
from 21z-01z. Expect at least one outflow boundary to affect the 
Denver airports today. 


&& 


Hydrology...scattered to isolated thunderstorms are expected 
across the area today. Moisture will be limited. A few of the 
storms may briefly produce moderate rain...but most of the storms 
will just produce light rain and gusty outflow winds. Do not 
expect any flooding issues today and even for the rest of the 
week. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories... 
red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 7 PM MDT this 
evening for coz246>251. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...meier 
long term....Cooper 
aviation...meier