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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 43 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 36 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 36 °
• Fog

• Sunday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 41 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado 
649 am MDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Update... 
issued at 646 am MDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Updated to include Fire Weather Watch headline for western 
Colorado on Friday. 


&& 


Short term...(tonight through Thursday night) 
issued at 401 PM MDT Tuesday may 15 2012 


Today...a compact 500 mb closed low over southern Nevada will move 
steadily east today as it opens into a weakening shortwave trough. 
By 21z the trough will be moving into eastern Utah with uplift ahead 
of it spreading across the forecast area. The moisture doesn't 
appear impressive so believe the chance of rain will remain 
highest over the mountains...with scattered storms over lower 
elevations. Time-height forecasts show most of the moisture to be 
rather high-based. This should lead to storms with gusty winds but 
little rain reaching the ground. 


Tonight through Thursday night...the compact upper low crosses our 
forecast area tonight. Q-fields indicate subsidence moving in 
after midnight so expect to see a decreasing trend in showers as 
the night progresses. 


A transient shortwave ridge then slides across on Thursday for continued 
warm temperatures. Steep lapse rates in the afternoon and residual 
moisture may trigger a few afternoon showers/thunderstorms over 
the mountains ridge axis slides to the east Thursday night as the next 
Pacific trough moves inland. 


Long term...(friday through tuesday) 
issued at 401 PM MDT Tuesday may 15 2012 


Friday and Friday night...the Pacific trough strengthens as it moves 
into the Great Basin Friday. Gradient tightens for strengthening 
southwest winds at the surface and aloft. The surface front is 
expected to move through NE Utah late Friday afternoon and continue 
east through the rest of the forecast area Friday evening. Trimmed 
probability of precipitation a tad Friday in the eastern parts of the forecast area as 
moisture remains sparse though some middle-level moisture is present 
by afternoon. Still...daytime heating and any dynamics ahead of 
the trough could trigger some afternoon showers and thunderstorms 
with steep lapse rates and deep instability. But with dry low 
levels...any convection likely to be high-based with storms 
producing more wind than significant precipitation. Both the 00z 
NAM and GFS models show a cold front pushing into NE Utah late Friday 
afternoon. Ahead of it...did boost maximum temperatures closer to MOS 
guidance in southeast Utah/SW Colorado Friday afternoon. 


Saturday through Tuesday...drier air with a steady westerly flow 
aloft will spread over the area Saturday. Sat should be 
significantly cooler that Friday. A broad but relatively Flat Ridge 
is expected to build over the SW U.S. Sat night and Sunday. This 
ridge with a warming trend will dominate the balance of the 
extended period. It should stay over the forecast area through 
Tuesday...producing a warm and dry trend. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z this evening) 
issued at 401 PM MDT Tuesday may 15 2012 


VFR conditions for all taf sites today...though this afternoon 
expected scattered storms to form near kege and kase with local 
MVFR conditions over the mountains. The main concern with any 
convection today will be strong outflow winds...approaching 45 
miles per hour. 


Fire weather...surface winds will increase Thursday as a system 
approaches from the west. Stronger southwest winds are expected 
Friday. These will combine with low humidities and dry fuels to 
produced possibly critical fire weather conditions from late 
morning through the evening. A Fire Weather Watch was issued from 
much of western Colorado for this time period. 


&& 


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories... 
Colorado...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening 
for coz201-203-207-290-292-293. 


Utah...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...cirrocumulus 
short term...cjc/jad 
long term....jad/cjc 
aviation.....Cjc 
fire weather...cjc