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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 43 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 45 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
1025 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front and its associated upper level disturbance 
will cross the region this afternoon. High pressure will build 
into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday...and build slowly to the 
eastern Seaboard at all levels of the atmosphere by the weekend. 
After a brief cool down Thursday...a warming trend will set up 
into the new week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
stratus clouds are gradually eroding...western portion of the 
forecast area are in the sun. Continued with the threat for severe 
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening as strong 
negatively tilted middle level trough approaches and cold front moves 
across the region. Based on observations it appears a pre-frontal 
trough is forming over central New York. The Storm Prediction 
Center maintains our forecast area in slight risk with an 
expansion to the west across central New York. The middle level lapse 
rate from the kbuf 12z sounding are a steep 7.1 c/km. Expecting 
potential convective available potential energy of 1500-2000 j/kg with deep-layer shear. The 
maglenta index points towards a major outlook...potential of 10+ 
events. The threat is for both damaging winds and large hail. 


The last Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued by National Weather Service Albany was on 
September 29th 2011. 


As of 605 am...clouds persist in all bu the farthest northwest 
zones...and have slowed their departure this morning. Temperatures are 
3-5 degrees above grids and have reached mins...so adjusted there. 
Rain showers are over Putnam and Dutchess counties....have increasing probability of precipitation 
there for another 2-3 hours...but these should continue NE and out 
of fca. 


As of 330 am EDT...mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog 
prevailed across the forecast area with still a few lingering showers across 
far southeast portion of forecast area. Expect that these conditions will 
continue for the remainder of the night with any showers confined 
to far southeast portions of the forecast area. Have raised overnight lows to 
the 50s to around 60. 


Today and tonight...expect an active afternoon and early evening 
with showers and thunderstorms developing across the forecast area as the 
afternoon wears on. Convection will first move into northwest 
portion of forecast area early afternoon and by middle to late afternoon across 
the remainder of the forecast area. Mlmucapes reach 1500-2500 j/kg at 18z with 
0-3 km helicity values in excess of 300 m2/s2 south of Lake 
Ontario...while this area of helicity weakens slightly as it shifts 
east across forecast area...still expect values around or slightly above 200 m2/s2 
particularly across southeast portion of forecast area around 00z. This also fits with timing 
of a strong surface cold front which drops southeast from the eastern 
Great Lakes early this morning into central New York by middle 
afternoon and southeast New York and western New England by early 
evening. Jet structure is also favorable for strong thunderstorms as 
forecast area ends up in the right entrance region of a cyclonically curved 
upper jet with middle level jet of 60+ kts aimed directly at forecast area. 800 mb-700 mb 
lapse rates also very impressive with 7-9 c/km this afternoon into 
early this evening. Wbz heights also lower to between 7 and 9 kft...so 
hail will also be possible. The thunderstorms are expected to move from 
southwest to northeast at 35 to 45 miles per hour and more than likely will 
form into one or more lines of storms which will progress eastward 
ahead of the cold front. Expect highs today to be in the lower 70s 
to lower 80s. Once the showers and thunderstorms end this evening 
expect that clouds will gradually diminish with some fog developing 
and lows in the upper 30s to middle to upper 40s. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Saturday night/... 
good agreement among the model suite (nam/GFS/gem) as 500hpa trough 
exits region early in the day Thursday...and surface high builds across 
the Great Lakes. Brief surge of cooler air pushes into region Thursday..but 
temperatures are still near normals. Thursday nt surface high is over fca...and 
under clear skies and lts winds temperatures will fall quickly in cool dry 
air mass...but middle may nights are among the shortest of the year 
at under 10 hours...and by late at night cirrus/Michigan clouds may be 
spilling over east side of 500hpa ridge in warm air advection may already be 
arriving in the fca. Temperatures will fall into 30s and low 40s...areas 
frost in Adirondacks and S Vermont. 


Friday into sun massive shift in upper air pattern occurs as 500hpa 
trough over Maritimes exists...and 580dm plus 500 hpa ridge builds to 
Ohio by Sat...and builds to 586dm over New York/PA sun. Through his period 
fca is in strong warm air advection...and model suggest some patchy middle and hi clouds 
at times...with fair MS to plus days and M clear/pc nights. Temperatures 
will be slightly above normals Friday in 70s...soaring into upper 70s 
and low 80s for the weekend. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/... 
during this period the models begin to spread in their solutions. 
The GFS has weak southeast US cut off shearing out...and holds a 
ridge at surface and 500hpa ridge east-west across the middle Atlantic region. In 
addition at surface weak cold front moves into St Lawrence Valley and washes 
out. This view is also supported by pvs HPC package and current 
forecast. Its a warm period with isolated rain showers. The Gem is similar at 
least Monday by drier. 


The GFS ensemble plumes keep in dry till 00utc Tuesday...with half 
the members suggesting 0.1 to 0.7 in tues/Wed...and the others 
lesser amounts or totally dry. 


The outlier at this time is the European model (ecmwf) which late sun phases several short waves 
into stronger southeast USA cut off. In response to this formation a surface 
low forms off hat and mvs north into New Jersey. This scenario spreads 
widespread soaking rain into fca Monday into Tuesday. For now will keep 
with current thinking and populate efp with gmos/GFS. While the 
European model (ecmwf) is an outlier at this time...this solution has reared its head several 
times the past few runs in different models...and in time these 
could be giving a signal...and the forecast for Monday/Tuesday could 
deteriorate. 


Since we have large consensus into Monday...efp will keep it dry and 
warm Monday and raise chance probability of precipitation Monday nt into Tuesday. Temperatures through this 
period will be 5-10 degree above normals. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
stratus clouds are gradually eroding...western portion of the 
forecast area are in the sun. Continued with the threat for severe 
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening as strong 
negatively tilted middle level trough approaches and cold front moves 
across the region. The Storm Prediction Center maintains our 
forecast area in slight risk with an expansion to the west across 
central New York. 


IFR/MVFR improving. Except VFR by afternoon. A cold front from 
the eastern Great Lakes approaches the taf sites middle to late 
afternoon and while too uncertain as to whether or not thunderstorms 
will impact individual taf sites have added rain showers to the tafs 
starting between 20z and 22z and these should last until early 
evening...after which clouds will break up rather quickly. 


Winds will generally be light and variable through middle morning and 
then become south to southwest at 7-10 kts...and then southwest with 
gusts over 20 kts by middle to late afternoon Wednesday. The winds will 
become west to northwest at 5-12 kts in the wake of the cold front 
early this evening. 


Outlook... 
Thu-sun...VFR...no sig weather. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
a cold front will move through the region triggering showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight into the weekend high 
pressure will build into the region at all levels of the 
atmosphere with dry weather persisting into the new week. 
After the recent rather wet period there should be no fire 
weather concerns into the new week. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
a quarter to half an inch of rain is possible today in showers with 
localized amounts over an inch possible in thunderstorms. This may 
result in some within bank rises today. Otherwise our weather 
will be dry Thursday into the new week which will allow rivers to 
recede closer to seasonal levels. 


For details on specific area rivers and lakes...including observed 
and forecast river stages and lake elevations...please visit the 
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Snyder 
near term...iaa/11/Snyder 
short term...Snyder 
long term...Snyder 
aviation...iaa/11 
fire weather...Snyder 
hydrology...Snyder