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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 50 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
1040 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Synopsis... 
another cold front will move through the region late today with 
high pressure moving in behind the front. This high will settle 
over the region through the weekend and the early part of next 
week. It will gradually slide to the east over the next few days 
before another cold front moves towards US next Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
the low clouds and fog lifted fairly quickly with the strong middle 
may sun and not much in the way of clouds above it. This should 
also result in strong low level warming...which in turn should 
allow mixing from above 850 mb. Based on this...we raised high 
temperatures for today...bringing them close to the MOS blend. 


The main forecast question for this afternoon/evening is 
potential for more thunderstorm activity. The signals are 
mixed...as low level moisture could ultimately be the limiting 
factor for development. The best low level moisture could be swept 
east this morning with the nocturnal convection. Mixing in the 
strong sunshine could also tend to lower dew points this 
afternoon...which could in turn cut down on the low level moisture 
available for convection. 


The best surface convergence should stretch from the northern 
Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey during the late afternoon 
and early evening. In addition...the shear increases across the 
north as a short wave passes north of the area. Based on the 
above...it would appear as though the best chance of organized 
convection would be here...but as mentioned earlier moisture could 
be the limiting factor. 


Further south...across northern Delaware...southeast Pennsylvania 
and southern New Jersey...instability should be in better supply. 
Modified soundings show MLCAPE values over 1000 j/kg...with cape 
profiles indicative of good updrafts. However...surface 
convergence here is not as good...nor is the bulk shear. So...for 
now the best chance of thunder will be placed across the 
north...with a mentioned retained further south. For now...no 
enhanced wording will be placed in the forecast. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Thursday/... 
the first part of the evening will be a continuation of the 
convective potential...with the best chance across the north. As 
was the case late Tuesday evening and early this morning...the 
instability could linger...and the mention of thunder was 
continued into the late evening hours. 


The front should cross the area between 0300 UTC and 0600 UTC 
Thursday. The passage of the front should cut off the low level 
instability...and a chance of showers was carried with the front 
to the coast. Behind the front...the air mass change is slow. There 
could even be some patchy fog ahead of the front in the late 
evening...but will not be mentioned yet. 


Behind the front...the low level push could allow for gusty north 
winds during the early morning hours. For the most part...because 
of the slow air mass change...lows were based on a nos blend. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will gradually work 
its way through our region during most of the extended period. 
Skies will be mostly clear allowing daytime temperatures to climb 
into the middle to upper 70s. The only caveat one could see would be 
on Friday and Saturday with onshore flow...will be stronger in the 
afternoon when peak heating would take place allowing a seabreeze 
to move pretty far inland both days. 


Otherwise, the return flow behind the departing high pressure 
system will bring increased moisture across the area early next 
week. The upper high will be on the wane with lowering heights 
indicated and a weak low on the 12z GFS. An increased chance for 
showers/thunderstorms will be over the region then. Small chance probability of precipitation are in 
the forecast for now covering Monday night into early Wednesday. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


A west southwest flow will develop ahead of a cold front. VFR 
conditions are expected for the remainder of the day. 


Scattered thunderstorms could develop ahead of the front late 
this afternoon and this evening...mainly affecting areas north and 
east of kphl. For now...the mention of thunder was left out of the 
forecast...but this could be revisited later. 


Once the front passes late this evening...VFR conditions are 
expected with a light north breeze. There are some indications 
that MVFR fog could develop just ahead of the front in places like 
kmiv and kacy...but this can be reevaluated with the 1200 UTC 
forecasts. 


Outlook... 
Thursday through Sunday...VFR. A seabreeze may develop on Friday 
and Saturday. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds remain below small craft levels early this morning...as the 
the coastal waters remains on the western edge of the gradient 
associated with the surface high well east of the waters. 


At late morning...seas remained near the 5 foot benchmark for a 
Small Craft Advisory. They have been slow to subside. With a 
continued southerly flow for this afternoon we have decided to 
extend the Small Craft Advisory until 600 PM and we have confined 
it to hazardous seas being that the wind should not be an issue. 


The southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front could 
approach 15 knots this afternoon and evening...but probably not 
more than that as the warm boundary layer runs over the cooler 
water. The best gusts should be near shore on the ocean and over 
the Delaware Bay. 


The front crosses the area late this evening and early Thursday 
morning. With the frontal passage...a few gusts to 20 knots are 
possible in the low level push. At this point...it appears that 
the northerly flow will remain below small craft levels through 
sunrise. 


Outlook... 
with high pressure over our waters on Thursday, we will continue 
to experience tranquil conditions. Winds will swing to the east- 
northeast on Friday and remain there through Monday. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this 
evening for anz450>455. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Heavener 
near term...Hayes 
short term...Hayes 
long term...Heavener/O'Hara 
aviation...Hayes/Heavener 
marine...iovino/Hayes/Heavener