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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
400 am CDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Short term...(today and tonight)...the axis of the positively 
tilted upper trough currently just west of the forecast area moves 
into the forecast area today while a weakly reflected surface trough 
over the north central Gulf shifts eastward slightly in response. A 
land breeze currently exists over the area and will see another sea 
breeze develop this afternoon as daytime highs climb to slightly 
above seasonable levels. Although middle level lapse rates will be 
near moist adiabatic...afternoon 0-1 km MLCAPES look to increase to 
700-1000 j/kg. Sref probability of precipitation are rather high for the coastal counties 
today...around 60 percent...but may see afternoon dewpoints drop 
again like yesterday so have gone with low end chance probability of precipitation for now 
with slight chance probability of precipitation inland. Any storms that develop this 
afternoon will have the potential to become strong with gusty winds 
and small hail...but severe thunderstorm development is not 
expected. Will have slight chance probability of precipitation this evening for lingering 
convection then just over the marine area after midnight for 
isolated land breeze convection. The wet microburst risk for this 
afternoon is low. /29 


&& 


Long term (thursday through next wednesday)...a dry forecast is 
expected through at least Friday as upper level ridging builds over 
the eastern states. Over the weekend into early next week...the 
global models remain persistent in developing a weakness in the 
ridge over the southeastern states. Slightly cooler middle level temperatures 
combined with afternoon heating will likely be enough for isolated 
afternoon storms through the middle part of next week as the 
weakness lingers over the southeast. Highs will remain in the 
middle/upper 80s with lows in the low/middle 60s inland to upper 60s along 
the coast through the period. /13 




&& 


Aviation (12z issuance)...VFR conditions are expected to prevail 
through the next 24 hours though will include thunderstorms in the vicinity for isolated 
thunderstorms this afternoon at the taf sites. Light northerly 
winds early this morning switch to the southwest this afternoon with 
the sea breeze then become northerly again overnight with the land 
breeze. /29 




&& 


Marine...a weak trough of low pressure over the north central Gulf 
gradually shifts eastward into the western Atlantic through Friday. 
Despite this feature...the pressure gradient over the area remains 
weak with light offshore winds becoming southerly in the afternoon 
then becoming northerly again at night. High pressure builds into 
the southeast states and northeastern Gulf this weekend with an 
easterly flow developing and increasing to near 15 knots...slightly 
stronger further offshore. /29 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 87 62 89 62 / 30 20 05 10 
Pensacola 87 67 87 67 / 30 20 10 10 
Destin 84 69 82 68 / 30 20 10 10 
Evergreen 87 60 90 58 / 20 10 05 10 
Waynesboro 87 59 89 58 / 10 10 05 10 
Camden 87 60 89 58 / 10 10 05 10 
Crestview 88 61 91 58 / 30 20 10 10 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$