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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 9:15 am EDT on May 16, 2012

  coverage and intensity of storms today could be limited by widespread clouds... Local radars from across the State of Florida show that a large mass of showers and storms developed over the Gulf of Mexico earlier this morning. This activity was weakening as it moved onshore the Florida West Coast. However...visible satellite imagery show a large area of thick mid and high level clouds was overspreading the state. These clouds are expected to persist throughout the morning and into the early afternoon...which will delay the onset of significant daytime heating. This...in turn...will likely keep temperatures a few to perhaps several degrees cooler than they would otherwise typically rise to for mid may. While the air mass is sufficiently moist to produce showers and storms...the limited surface heating may result in reduced instability...and thus an overall reduction in both coverage and intensity of showers and storms today. Radar and satellite trends will be closely monitored throughout the day...as any significant breaks or thinning in the cloud cover will result in rapid development of showers and storms along local sea and lake breeze boundaries. Additional details...including graphics are available online at: http://www.Srh.NOAA.Gov/mlb/blog.Php

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 70 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
1015 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Discussion... 
h100-h70 ridge axis over the Florida Straits continues to block the 
advance of a weak trough over the eastern Seaboard. Tricky forecast this 
morning as soundings ktbw/kxmr/kmfl soundings show a fair amount of 
dry air below h70 and a nearly saturated h70-h40 layer. Significant 
amount of debris clouds generated by convection over the eastern Gomex 
will put a damper on surface heating for much of the day...which in turn 
will limit thunderstorm potential. However...isentropic lift is occurring 
over S Florida...resulting in widespread stratiform rain...unusual for Florida 
in middle may. 


Dynamic lift has improved a bit...a couple of noteworthy vorticity lobes 
over the eastern Gomex will push across the peninsula later today while a 
90kt h30-h20 jet over the Gomex generates respectable upper level 
divergence. However...the middle/upper level clouds along with the rain 
cooled air will impede thunderstorm potential. Coverage will remain high as 
is the nature of stratiform rain...but impact will be low. The rain 
will take some time to move in as the low level dry air will need to 
modify a bit...but should see rain areawide by middle afternoon. 


Middle morning temperatures in the l/m70s are running 4-6f cooler than 24hrs ago. 
Will knock a few degrees off with the morning update. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR all sites unless otherwise noted. Through 16/17z ... wndshft to 
east/southeast coastal sites associated with the East Coast sea breeze...ceilings at or above 
fl100. Between 16/17z-16/23z...areas MVFR rain with scattered IFR/LIFR thunderstorms and rain showers 
moving east/NE around 10mph...activity shifting to the coast after 21z...ceilings 
between fl080-100. Between 16/23z-17/03z...rain and rain showers ending...ceilings at or above 
fl120. 


&& 


Marine... 
surface/low level ridge axis over the Florida Straits will interact with a weak 
trough over the eastern Seaboard to generate a light to gentle west/SW breeze 
over the local Atlantic. Winds will shift to the east near the coast by early 
afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze develops. Seas 2-3ft nearshore and 
3-4ft offshore...mainly in an 8sec swell. 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/aviation...bragaw 
long term/impact weather...cristaldi