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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 70 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 72 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
904 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Update... 
a shortwave is presently located over Louisiana. Southwesterly flow 
over the eastern Gulf is supplying deep moisture to the local area. A 
nocturnal mesoscale convective system is currently moving onshore from appalachee Bay and 
speading showers over Suwannee Valley and into the I-75 corridor. 
Have increased probability of precipitation over the western Florida zones this morning. 
Abundant high cloudiness blankets the forecast area as a 60-70 knots 
upper jet spreads clouds ahead of the mesoscale convective system. As mentioned in previous 
discussion...another active day is anticipated despite the thick 
morning clouds. Kjax 12z sounding displays steeper lapse rates and 
thus more instability than yesterday...showing a cape above 4000 
j/kg. However bufr model soundings forecast cape ranging from 2000 
to 3000 j/kg. Although surface heating may be delayed due to cloud 
cover...strong dynamics associated with the eastern Gulf 
disturbance will combine with strong instability and myriad of 
boundaries and sea breezes to produce another active day beginning 
over NE Florida this morning and focusing along the entire East Coast 
later in the afternoon. 


&& 


Aviation... 
nearby wildfire is causing restricted visibility at vqq and jax with 
prevailing MVFR. Expect improvement around 15z. Otherwise VFR 
conds prevail this morning with ceilings above 12 kft. Rain showers moving in 
off the Gulf will likely reach gnv in next hour and will amend 
soon. Amendments will be issued as timing of thunderstorms and rain may change 
throughout the day. 


&& 


Marine... 
no headlines today. Winds are SW to west generally less than 15 knots 
at the buoys. Seas are around 3 feet this morning. Benign conditions 
will continue through early Friday morning. 


Rip currents: low risk through Thursday due to light offshore 
winds. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 84 63 88 63 / 40 30 50 50 
ssi 79 69 80 68 / 50 40 50 50 
jax 83 65 85 65 / 60 60 60 60 
sgj 81 68 80 68 / 60 60 60 60 
gnv 84 63 87 63 / 60 60 60 60 
ocf 84 65 87 63 / 60 60 60 60 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Mkt/pw/pk