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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 10:18 am EDT on May 16, 2012

  Numerous showers...with isolated thunderstorms...were moving east at 20 to 25 mph over the coastal waters and into the inland areas. The strongest storms were 20 nm west of Jasmine estates...and in east Levy County. Expect periods of heavy rainfall...wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph...and excessive deadly lightning strikes with the stronger storms.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
923 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Discussion... 
a positively tilted upper trough moving slowly east across the 
northern Gulf region combined with a strong upper jet over the 
Gulf producing divergent flow aloft is supporting a large area 
of showers and embedded T-storms over the eastern Gulf waters and 
adjacent coastal counties early this morning. A moist and unstable 
air mass covering the region via 12z radiosonde observation data will continue to 
support additional shower and storm development the remainder of 
today...but similar to previous days considerable cloudiness now 
covering the region is likely to once again delay and limit sea 
breeze driven convective coverage during the afternoon hours if 
the clouds do not thin out. Given this uncertainty will leave 
inherited 30 to 60 percent coast to inland probability of precipitation in place for now 
with no grid or zone updates planned at this time. 


&& 


Aviation... 
showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly shift towards the 
coast from the Gulf. Vcsh expected at all taf sites through the 
morning with thunderstorms in the vicinity expected as the sea breeze develops. Moisture 
will continue to lift out of the Gulf through much of the taf 
period so will maintain at least vcsh at all sites through 2-4z. 
Lal may experience brief mvrf visby before sunrise. 


&& 


Marine... 
weak pressure pattern will continue to support light winds and 
low seas over the Gulf waters the remainder of today as weak 
surface high pressure remains in control. Ongoing forecast looks 
in good shape with no changes expected in the next forecast 
issuance later this morning. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion/marine...57/McMichael 
aviation...20/Barron