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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 79 °
• Rain Showers

• Friday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 79 °
• Rain Showers

• Saturday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 84 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 79 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 77 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
546 PM chst Wednesday may 16 2012 


Synopsis... 
pgua WSR-88D shows isolated trade-wind showers moving through the 
marianas waters. The VAD wind profile shows gentle to moderate 
trade winds through the lowest six thousand feet. 


&& 


Discussion... 
dry season trade-wind regime has remained firmly entrenched up to 
now. A trade-wind disturbance to the east will likely bring some 
increased cloudiness. Most of the shower activity should pass to 
the south. The inherited grids did a fine job of describing these 
short term trends...so no changes were needed through the 
weekend. 


For the long term...no changes were made for a different reason. 
While the gfs40 has good run-to-run consistency and so does the 
ECMWF-hires...they have rather poor model-to-model consistency 
with each other. This is leading to a low confidence forecast for 
the longer term next week. The European model (ecmwf)-hires sets up a southeast 
flow over the marianas...while the gfs40 takes a minimal trough 
and spins up a circulation to the east of the marianas with a 
west flow setting up. The European model (ecmwf)-hires looks more likely given 
past trends this year...but the gfs40 scenario cannot be 
completely ruled out. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
just as with the last forecast...short term forecasts were 
adjusted for Majuro and Kosrae as weather conditions improved 
through the day. Pleasant weather will persist overnight for 
these two locations. A trade-wind disturbance over Pohnpei will 
keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in that state 
overnight. Visible satellite shows a weak nearly convection-free 
circulation centered close to the Equator within a dry trade-wind 
trough that is currently approaching Kosrae. Models agree well 
with satellite trends which indicate little weather over Kosrae 
as this system passes. Long term remains consistent with previous 
forecast. Models show a zone of increased shower coverage 
concentrating between 7n and 10n from west of kwajalein to west 
of Pohnpei Thursday night through Saturday as moist...cross- 
equatorial flow develops. Meanwhile...models forecast a trade surge 
to bring more showers to the central Marshalls by Saturday. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
fair weather has set up over Chuuk while a trade disturbance 
looms to the east near Pohnpei. Models bring unsettled conditions 
to Chuuk state by Thursday and into the weekend as the 
disturbance slowly moves through. A few periods of scattered 
showers are possible...but timing is hard to discern this far in 
advance. Farther west...a broad weak circulation is centered 
southeast of Koror within a near-equatorial trough. Scattered 
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight on 
Koror...while just a slight chance of thunderstorms exists over 
Yap. Light and variable winds in Koror metars indicate the trough 
has lingered over the island much of the day. Models show this 
feature will drift slowly west...but the trough axis will remain 
close to Koror during the next couple of days. European model (ecmwf) maintains a 
wetter trend on Friday and Saturday than does the GFS...which 
still shows a weak circulation centered just northwest of 
Koror...but with relatively dry weather over both Koror and Yap. 
Light and variable winds over the weekend could Signal Island 
thunder on Koror. Therefore...short term adjustments may be 
required for the Koror forecast this weekend. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Stanko/M. Aydlett