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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC 
1015 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Synopsis... 
a broad and slow moving trough of low pressure will move east 
across the area today and Thursday...keeping rain chances in the 
forecast. High pressure will build into the region from the north 
by Friday and remain in place through the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 8 PM this evening/... 
weak surface trough remains over the region...providing light and 
variable winds. Sufficient atmospheric moisture plus daytime 
heating and the approach of an upper disturbance to provide chance 
of showers and thunderstorms. However...lingering low level 
cloudiness late this morning combined with increasing high level 
cloudiness moving NE into our region from thunderstorms over North 
Florida...could impede heating and instability this afternoon. Reduced 
maximum temperature slightly. Reduced probability of precipitation slightly and trended precipitation timing 
later in the day. 


&& 


Short term /8 PM this evening through Friday night/... 
lingering upper trough and surface boundary in the area will 
finally slowly push east through the forecast area overnight. 
Expect isolated to scattered convection to start the period 
supported by relatively high middle level lapse rates and 
precipitable water values above 1.25 inches this evening. Will 
continue to carry chance probability of precipitation through the evening hours and 
diminish probability of precipitation after midnight. Overnight lows will be similar to 
previous nights...in the lower 60s. 


By Thursday morning...the surface boundary should be situated over 
the eastern midlands or just east of the forecast area with 
northeasterly flow at the surface up to around 10000 feet. The upper 
trough axis will be aligned over the forecast area with cooling 
500mb temperatures. The middle level cooling combined with daytime 
heating should lead to a moderately unstable airmass across the 
eastern midlands...in the vicinity of the surface front...and will 
need to hold on to chance probability of precipitation across the forecast area with the 
highest probability of precipitation east. Isolated severe convection remains a 
possibility but coverage should not be as extensive as it has been 
earlier in the week. Maximum temperatures will be near normal in the 
lower to middle 80s. 


High pressure will build south into the area Thursday night as 
easterly flow deepens across the region. Precipitable water values 
decrease to below an inch by Friday morning and remain low through 
Friday night. Cool northeasterly flow will provide a more stable 
atmosphere on Friday and with much less moisture available do not 
anticipate any precipitation Friday and Friday night as the frontal 
boundary and upper trough axis remains to the east. Temperatures 
on Friday will be slightly cooler with highs around 80 to the 
lower 80s and lows Friday night will fall into the 50s across the 
area. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
little change during this period. 


Medium range models are trending more towards a broad upper trough 
developing over the southeastern states...beneath an upper ridge 
located over the Ohio Valley over the weekend. Persistent deep 
easterly flow off the Atlantic will bring moisture back into the 
forecast area by Sunday as precipitable water values increase to 
over 1.25 inches. Will continue with a dry forecast on Saturday 
but rain chances return to the forecast Sunday through early next 
week. Temperatures during this period should be near normal. It is 
Worth noting that this is a low confidence forecast due to the 
lack of run to run consistency among the models and relatively 
weak flow pattern...leading to a forecast dominated by smaller 
scale features which are tough to pinpoint in the extended 
periods. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
low cloudiness lingers over the central midlands with low end IFR 
ceilings continuing at cae/cub/ogb at 14z. Will expect this 
cloudiness to slowly lift and dissipate over the next few hours. 
Otherwise...VFR conditions expected today...with diurnal cumulus and 
increasing upper level cloudiness. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms possible this afternoon...but confidence of precipitation 
affecting terminals not sufficient to include in the tafs at this 
time. MVFR or IFR stratus and fog late tonight/Thursday morning. 


Extended aviation outlook...widespread MVFR or IFR stratus and fog 
may occur during the early morning hours Thursday and Friday. 


&& 


Cae watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
Georgia...none. 
&& 


$$