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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

• Sunday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
740 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


Previous discussion... 


Short term /today through Thursday/... 
/issued 505 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012/ 
County Warning Area is still under upper level troughing while a slow moving front 
is still positioned across the southeast portion of the County Warning Area...just 
west of kezm to kags. Showers and thunderstorms have lingered into 
the early morning...but have started to weaken. NAM drifts surface front 
slightly northward today while the GFS keeps it nearly stationary 
and drifts it southeast tonight. Leaned toward the GFS on the 
position of the front. Focus for best convection will remain across 
the southeast portion of the County Warning Area...near the front. In 
addition...slow moving trough axis will slide into northwest Georgia 
today and provide additional support for convection. Appears to be 
another day of isolated to scattered summerlike showers and 
thunderstorms with NAM and GFS MUCAPE values exceeding 1500 j/kg and 
near zero shear. Best instability will be across the southeast 
portion of the County Warning Area...closer to the front and this will be the area 
with the best chance for stronger storms. 


By Thursday...the surface front will move out of the County Warning Area and high 
pressure will build into the northeast with the beginning of ridging 
down the Appalachians. Upper level trough axis will still remain 
across the County Warning Area...but shift toward the eastern side. This will once 
again allow for summerlike convection. 


Think the mav is a little too warm today so leaned toward a mav/met 
blend with some minor adjustments. Mav dew points also appeared to 
be too low this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon so again leaned 
toward a blend which seemed more reasonable. 


11 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
/issued 505 am EDT Wednesday may 16 2012/ 
extended forecasts similar with the axis of the upper trough lingering 
over the east side of the state Thursday night...but appears to 
shift out of the area Friday as upper ridging strengthens to our 
west and northwest. Models continue to show surface high pressure 
wedging down the Appalachians Friday and remaining over the area 
through the weekend. Models hinting at the high weakening and 
beginning to shift off the middle Atlantic coast Monday-Tuesday time 
frame as a cold front moves into the lower Mississippi River 
valley. Have continued slight chance probability of precipitation extreme north and 
extreme southeast counties Thursday night/Friday with upper trough 
still having some influence. Slight chance probability of precipitation mainly southeast 
counties Saturday into Sunday with models showing a weak upper low 
meandering near the Florida Panhandle. Low probability of precipitation much of the area 
Monday and Tuesday with the frontal boundary approaching. 


49 


&& 


Aviation... 
12z update... 
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Visibilities have 
decreased at ahn and mcn to MVFR and low VFR respectively...but 
do not think these conditions will last past 13z. Expect cumulus 
development late this morning and then just high clouds overnight 
again. Winds will remain northwest today and become northeast 
overnight tonight. 


//Atl confidence...12z update... 
high confidence on all elements except low confidence on 
occurrence of few030 this morning. 


11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Athens 84 61 85 62 / 30 30 20 10 
Atlanta 83 63 84 63 / 20 20 20 5 
Blairsville 79 55 78 56 / 20 20 30 20 
Cartersville 84 54 86 57 / 10 10 20 10 
Columbus 87 64 86 62 / 20 20 20 10 
Gainesville 82 61 83 61 / 20 20 20 10 
Macon 86 60 86 62 / 30 30 30 10 
Rome 84 57 86 59 / 10 10 20 10 
Peachtree City 83 57 84 58 / 20 20 20 10 
Vidalia 87 66 85 65 / 30 30 30 20 


&& 


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$