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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Des Moines Iowa 
629 am CDT Wednesday may 16 2012 


..updated aviation discussion... 


Short term /today/... 
much quieter and cooler weather forecast for today as a high 
pressure area slides from Minnesota across Wisconsin and Lake 
Michigan. This will cause our winds to shift from north this morning 
to south southeast by sunset...however speeds will remain light for 
most of the day especially in our northeastern and eastern counties. 
This scenario will also result in little in the way of sensible 
weather across the County Warning Area with virtually clear skies. The only real 
forecast question is temperatures. The cooler airmass moving in will 
be aided by light winds for the most part...however the near-surface 
layer will be very dry and if any mixing can occur then temperatures 
could warm somewhat in the afternoon. This seems most feasible in 
our west as the high moves off to the east late today and we get 
some return flow over there. Have forecast high temperatures 
slightly above MOS across most of about our western half and near 
MOS in the east. At any rate it will be a gorgeous late Spring day 
for most outdoor interests. 


Long term /Wednesday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure will move off to the east. Temperatures will fall 
off quickly this evening and are expected to level off after 
midnight with slow falls in the southeast and steady or even rising 
a few degrees overnight in the northwest as winds increase. Airmass 
remains quite dry for Thursday and Friday and continued with the dry 
forecast. Given the dry antecedent conditions would expect to see 
maximum temperatures rise at or above MOS forecasts and bumped them up a little both 
days. Models are consistent with the movement of the next cold 
front and went with the thinking of yesterday with introduction of 
thunderstorms and rain over the northwest late Sat afternoon as front approaches. 
Temperatures will be trickier for Sat as moisture is finally working into 
the are with precipitable water getting up to near 1.5 inches by evening. Went 
with strong probability of precipitation for Saturday night through Sunday when the best 
chance for widespread rainfall exists. As the front passes to the 
east...temperatures will fall back to near normal for a couple days. Don't 
expect to see that last long before warming returns. A quick 
comment about the significant differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) 
in the Post day 7 timeframe...feel the European model (ecmwf) is the better solution 
as the GFS does not appear to be handling mjo very well at 
all...leading to the response of strongly rising heights over the 
eastern Continental U.S.. 


&& 


Aviation 16/12z... 
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with very few if any 
clouds and no precipitation or obscurations. Shifting wind direction 
provides the only justification for multi-line tafs...but wind 
speeds should remain at or below 10 knots. 


&& 


Dmx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short...Lee 
long...MS may 12 
aviation...Lee