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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 54 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service La Crosse WI 
600 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Short term...today through Wednesday night 
302 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


The main focus for the early part of this week is with 
temperatures and the next chance for thunderstorms Wednesday 
afternoon/night. 


A cold front that brought some storms through the region yesterday 
has moved into the central Great Lakes while the core of a ridge 
of high pressure over Nebraska drifts in behind the front. Winds 
have gradually diminished from west to east overnight as the ridge 
moves in and the pressure gradient weakens. Seasonal temperatures 
with highs in the low 70s are in store for today with the core of 
the coldest 850mb air shifting east across Wisconsin and the 
surface ridge moving into the upper Mississippi River valley 
region. 


Warmer air will move back into the region on Tuesday as the winds 
come around to the south with the ridge moving into the Great 
Lakes. 850mb temperatures increase from around +8c Tuesday morning 
to around +14c by middle afternoon from the west along a tightening 
surface pressure gradient. As a result...winds could become rather 
gusty...particularly across the higher/flatter terrain in 
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday. The 
core of the warmest air will be overhead on Wednesday...so we 
should see a continuing warming trend over the next few days. 


The next chances for any rain/thunder comes in on Wednesday 
afternoon as a middle level short wave trough propagates northeast 
through the southwest flow aloft with a surface cold front moving 
into southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa. The question seems to 
be with how far east the front and associated convection will 
make it before it stalls out. The 21.00z NAM/GFS/ECMWF are in 
decent agreement with bringing the front to the outskirts of the 
forecast area in southeast Minnesota Wednesday afternoon before 
stalling it out Wednesday night as the short wave trough and a 
surface low move into the plains along the southern portion of the 
front. Instability looks fairly marginal based on 21.00z soundings 
from rst...but the low level jet noses up into the region and could 
be enough to produce some thunder. 


Long term...Thursday through Sunday 
302 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Tricky extended forecast period toward the end of the week and 
this next weekend due to the cold front stalling out and then gets 
a kick to the east through the region Thursday night into Friday 
before it lays out to the south and then comes back through as a 
warm front. After the front initially moves through...it looks 
like a ridge of high pressure will track east along the 
US/Canadian border Friday into Saturday and push the cold front to 
the south of the forecast area. The trend then appears to bring a 
surface low up across the Dakotas and pull the front back to the 
north Saturday night into Sunday. The European model (ecmwf) has been the most 
aggressive the past few days with bringing on the heat while the 
GFS has been a bit more consistent and Reserve with bringing on 
this warmth. Have gone with a blend of high temperatures on 
Sunday with the 21.00z GFS indicating low 80s while the 21.00z 
European model (ecmwf) is in the upper 80s to low 90s. Precipitation-wise...the 
best chances appear to come in on Thursday night as a low lifts 
across Minnesota and swings the cold front through. Confidence is 
not as high with the chances into the weekend as the front lifts 
back to the north as a warm front...but have left some low 
probabilities for now. 


&& 


Aviation...today into Tuesday 
600 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Dry/cool Canadian high pressure will continue to settle across the 
region today...then begin to slide off to the east of the area 
tonight. Good VFR conditions expected today/tonight. Only some 
cirrus clouds ahead of the next low into the northern plains to 
drifting across the area late tonight into Tuesday. Break points in tafs 
mainly to indicate wind direction shifts as surface ridge axis 
approaches then passes east of the area through tonight. Gradient will 
tighten more on Tuesday as the high shifts further east of the area... 
with increasing/brisk south winds at the taf sites for Tuesday 
afternoon. 


&& 


Arx watches/warnings/advisories... 
302 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


WI...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
Iowa...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...halbach 
long term....halbach 
aviation.....Rrs