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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 50 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
628 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Aviation... 
12z tafs for koma...klnk...and kofk. 


High pressure over Iowa will continue to influence the weather 
over the taf sites through the period by keeping skies mostly 
clear. Scattered clouds above 10000 feet over central Nebraska 
this morning should dissipate as the day progresses. South winds 
will increase by noon...and a few gusts over 20 knots will be 
possible at kofk and klnk. 


Nietfeld 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 340 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Discussion... 


Primary forecast concerns from today through Wednesday will be 
temperatures and low chances for precipitation. Rain chances look 
better at times later in the week and into the weekend. 


Large scale pattern at 500 mb currently features a trough moving 
toward the Pacific northwest...a ridge over The Rockies and a 
trough across the Great Lakes region. Low and middle level moisture 
was rather sparse in the region... except for a small pocket of 
moisture over western Nebraska around the 305 k isentropic 
surface. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted 
there early this morning. At the surface...cool high pressure was 
over the local area. 


Surface high pressure will move off to the southeast today...with 
increasing southerly winds spreading eastward across Nebraska. In 
western Iowa...winds should remain light all day. Even though 
models show the middle level moisture moving across northeast 
Nebraska today...kept the forecast dry due to a fairly dry airmass 
below 750 mb. But the day shift will have to monitor trends on 
that. Highs today should be warmer than yesterday...mainly 75-80. 


Tonight...better moisture at 850 mb should move into northeast 
Nebraska and kept a slight chance of thunderstorms there mainly 
after midnight. Lapse rates will be decent and a 35-45 knot low 
level jet (around 925 mb) is expected. 


Tuesday will be warmer and breezy/windy with brisk southerly low 
level flow in place. Expect highs in the 80s. The southerly flow 
continues into Tuesday night ahead of the next cold front...which 
should be approaching northeast Nebraska by 12z Wednesday. Again 
will have a small chance for thunderstorms in that area after 
midnight Tuesday night. The 06z NAM was a little faster than the 
00z GFS with the front. At this time...prefer the NAM solution. 


On Wednesday...the front should continue to press southeast. The 
NAM is still faster with the southeastward movement of the front 
compared to the 00z GFS. Warm 700 mb temperatures should limit 
thunderstorm chances Wednesday to just the northern half of the 
forecast area. By Wednesday night...thought a blend of the NAM 
and GFS was best. Held highest precipitation chances to the 
northwest half of the forecast area. 


No significant changes were made to the forecast beyond Thursday. 
A trough at 500 mb should be over The Rockies Thursday and a front 
should be stalled just south of the local area or over southeast 
Nebraska. Thunderstorm chances look fairly small Thursday...but 
those will increase somewhat Thursday night. 


Models still have some differences with timing of precipitation 
and location of surface features farther out. Generally used a 
blend of the 00z runs of GFS/ECMWF/Canadian for Friday to Monday. 


Miller 


&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$