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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 46 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service quadrant cities Iowa Illinois 
613 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Update... 
surface observation show the cold air making its way down the wapsi valley 
with kiib briefly dropping to 39 degrees. The overall forecast looks 
good but will be doing very minor tweaks to the hrly grids to 
better reflect current temperature trends. ..08.. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR weather will be seen through 00z/23 as high pressure slowly moves 
across the Midwest. Winds should jump 15z-16z/21 as the inversion 
breaks with minimal cloud development. Winds will diminish around 
00z/22 with winds becoming light and variable prior to sunrise on 
Tuesday. ..08.. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 306 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Synopsis... 
06z surface analysis has the front from Michigan into central Missouri 
with high pressure across the plains. Dew points along/ahead of the 
front were in the 50s and 60s with 40s and some 30s across the 
plains and western Great Lakes. 


Short term...today and tonight... 
quiet and pleasant weather will be seen across the area today and tonight 
as high pressure moves across the area. Model solutions are varied 
on how deep the atmosphere will mix out. The mix out could be 
anywhere from 850 to 775mb. Maximum/min temperatures will be near or just below 
normal. ..08.. 


Long term...Tuesday through Sunday... 
Tuesday and Wednesday...we will transition from a quiet and sunny 
high pressure ridge to southerly flow. However...no significant 
moisture or forcing is expected in the transition...thus Wednesday 
will just be a windy sunny day. 


Models continue to vary on Thursday and Friday...and our forecast 
has been conservative on probability of precipitation for good reason. The front now looks 
to hold off until Thursday night...resulting in a dry windy hot day 
Thursday. A late night mature mesoscale convective system could impact US Thursday night 
should the European model (ecmwf) be correct...but this remains a low threat. 


The UKMET...GFS...and European model (ecmwf) bring the front south to northern 
Missouri early Friday before bringing it north of the area again by 
Saturday afternoon. This may offer the best chance for rainfall and 
storms during the period...however forcing and advection is much 
better west of Iowa...and we may get skipped in this double frontal passage. 


The weekend is looking hot! A broad upper ridge should build 
westward...capping convection locally and allowing for dry weather 
from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. Afterwards...model 
loosely suggest a wetter pattern with less heat. Maximum temperatures have been 
raised to the lower 90s for Sunday...and may need to come up a few 
more degrees if the dry and sunny weather gains further confidence. 
Ervin 


&& 


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories... 
Iowa...none. 
Illinois...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$