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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 43 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 48 °
• Low: 32 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 46 °
• Low: 30 °
• Chance Rain

• Thursday
• 
• High: 48 °
• Low: 32 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
940 am MDT Monday may 21 2012 


Discussion...active period of weather setting up during the next 
24-36 hours. A very warm day remains on tap for the region with 
highs near 90f from Boise east to Twin Falls. Even areas under 
thicker cloud cover in eastern Oregon will see highs in the middle 70s 
ahead of the cold front passage. Main challenge short term is the 
areal extent and intensity to any convection that develops. Larger 
dynamic support for storm development will be over northern portions 
of the County warning forecast area and points north and east where strong jet support and 
instability lies. However...with good heating over the south and 
east...storms may also be on the strong side as the front crosses. 
However...they should be isolated in coverage. Dynamic support 
associated with the inbound big weather pattern change will also 
support nocturnal convection until the cold front exits and strong 
cold advection takes over. Current forecast is in good shape...not 
planning any updates at this time. 


Aviation...scattered VFR/low-MVFR showers and isolated thunderstorms along 
and ahead of a cold front. At 15z...N-S oriented front was over 
central Oregon and was slowly moving eastward toward the forecast 
area. Baker County and the west central mountains /including kbke and 
kmyl/ are most likely to experience thunderstorms today. Expect southeast 
to SW surface winds with local gusts to 40 miles per hour through 06z. 
Southwesterly winds aloft will average 30 kts at 10k feet mean sea level. 


&& 


Previous discussion...today through Tuesday...another very warm day 
today before a big change to a cooler showery pattern commences on 
Tuesday and continues into next weekend. Temperatures will be several 
degrees warmer in southwest Idaho today while temperatures in southeast 
Oregon will change little from yesterday. Highs will reach or exceed 
90f from Mountain Home to Twin Falls. Air mass will moisten up and 
destabilize across northern portions of the County Warning Area this afternoon with 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally north of a 
Burns-Ontario-Idaho City line. A cold front currently off the West 
Coast will drive inland today and cross our area tonight. 
Instability along the front could prolong thunderstorms into the 
overnight hours as the front moves through the Boise/west central 
mountains showers are likely in the north overnight as well with only a 
slight chance elsewhere due to limited moisture. The front will 
usher in much cooler temperatures on Tuesday with highs 15-20 degrees lower 
than today. A 100+ knot jet stream will move into the region on 
Tuesday. The stronger winds aloft along with a cooler Post-frontal 
air mass will generate breezy to locally windy conditions area-wide 
by afternoon. Showers will once again favor areas in the north with 
slight chance of thunderstorms limited to the Boise/west central mountains 


Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday...unsettled weather on 
track for the extended period with cooler than normal temperatures 
and showery conditions. Several in a series of weak short wave 
troughs will move through the flow and carve out a long wave trough 
along the West Coast. Friday night and Saturday models agree on the 
long wave trough along the West Coast with a deep upper level low 
over northern California but differ on how this low and the 
associated long wave trough will track to the east Saturday night 
and Sunday. With low confidence in the models for Saturday night 
and Sunday will keep the slight chance to chance probability of precipitation over the 
region. Temperatures will remain below normal. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Discussion...gs 
previous discussion...bw 
long term....ja 
aviation.....Mt