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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 61 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana 
601 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Aviation... /12 UTC tafs/ 
primary difficulty surrounds marine layer and associated high end IFR/low 
end MVFR stratus ceilings across southwestern Michigan/northwestern in. Ceilings at ksbn should 
lift gradually to MVFR/above fuel alt by about 14 UTC as drier air 
upstream filters in. At kfwa minimal concern for convection late 
am/midday with updraft focus/instability on uptick. Best chances for 
any thunderstorms and rain remain across northwestern Ohio midday/Erly afternoon in best collocation of 
Theta-E ridge/convergence within lwst 100 mb. Still regen of 
updrafts to provide enough chance for rain showers for tempo mention 14-17 UTC. 
A similar high end MVFR cumulus possible as well/though initial drier conds 
to more likely prove VFR dominant. 


&& 


Short term... 
today through Tuesday night. Rapid dissipation of convection amid 
strong outflow dominance and ardent surface/ml cin increases. Outflow has 
pushed well east of County Warning Area /FM extreme southwestern ont-kday-klex. Nothing more 
than chance rain showers into midday Sans unified focus 
mechanism/instability. Midday into afternoon have relegated 
convective chances farther eastward...primarily along and east of i69 where 
modest instability/low level Theta-E axis reforms with sbcapes into 
1500-2000 j/kg range by 18 UTC per modified NAM pt soundings 80/60. 
Timing of thunderstorms and rain difficult owing to timing with respect to decay of remnant 
convective debris necessary for strong uptick in 
insolation/destabilization. Given uncertainty will carry chance thunderstorms and rain 
eastern third midday 15-18 UTC...segueing to stronger afternoon focus across 
northwestern Ohio for scattered thunderstorms and rain wording as regen of convergence within lwst 
100 mb intensifies. Difficult temperature gradient/hourly curve across County Warning Area 
with low level thermal ridge across eastern County Warning Area/shifting eastward to eastern Ohio/WV by 
evening...strongest/deepest cold air advection into northwestern/western County Warning Area to at the very 
least stymie though potnly negate a diurnal recovery. Temperatures 
markedly cooler to just below normal...have lowered temperatures especially dy1 
night given core of thermal trough from Michigan thumb to northwestern County Warning Area by 
daybreak Tuesday with strongly subsident dry air /pwat at or below 0.4 inches/ 
to afford sharp fall off. 925mb thermal pattern moderates by 
f60...though more robust surface based thermal inversion should allow 
temperatures as cold or slightly cooler...with trending reflected in 
latest grids. 


&& 


Long term... 


Generally dry and warm in the long term period with the main 
challenge being how warm late this week and during the Holiday 
weekend. 


Long term begins Wednesday with an upper low just to out southeast 
and still some model disparity with respect to how close this 
feature will be to our County Warning Area. European model (ecmwf) spreads a little more moisture 
back into the southeast County Warning Area which could mean a few more clouds and 
slightly cooler temperatures. Will keep with a mostly sunny forecast but 
afternoon cumulus field and higher cirrus both possible. Precipitation should stay 
southeast of our area based on latest guidance. 


Middle level ridge should begin to build back over area Wednesday as 
deep trough develops in the far western Continental U.S. And allows heights to 
rise over our region. Temperatures will warm through the week with 850mb 
temperatures back to upper teens by Thursday into Friday. This should help 
surface temperatures warm back into middle and upper 80s. If full mixing is 
realized like yesterday we could easily be back into lower 90s. 


Biggest challenge still lies with Saturday and Sunday as a weak 
frontal boundary is being prognosticated to drop south into our area 
despite upper ridge in place. European model (ecmwf) is much farther north with this 
front but latest 12z and 00z runs do indicate surface winds becoming 
northeast to east over northern half of area Saturday as boundary 
weakens and sinks south. GFS still remains farther south with front 
into southern Indiana and have discounted this solution. With strong 
ridge in place still like the idea of European model (ecmwf) with front having 
trouble moving too far south given less dampening of middle level 
ridge. The result will likely be a strong thermal gradient across 
our area with northeast winds north of boundary and a few more 
clouds possible while south of boundary temperatures will likely reach near 
90 on Saturday. Consensus blends leaning this direction as well. 
Boundary shifts back north on Sunday with ridge building as western 
trough deepens. 850mb temperatures warm into lower 20c range as 500mb 
heights rise to around 588 dam. This should yield low to even middle 
90s south and near 90 far north. 


The aforementioned weak cold front could spark some widely 
scattered afternoon convection or upstream mesoscale convective system development possible 
which could ride north of front. However...all these convective 
possibilities are very low chance events right now so prudence 
suggest keeping probability of precipitation below mentionable level in the 10 to 14 percent 
range. 


&& 


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...none. 
Michigan...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Lm...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT 
Tuesday for lmz043-046. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Murphy 
long term...Lashley 
aviation...Murphy