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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 59 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 57 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 59 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Dodge City Kansas 
1221 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


..updated synopsis and aviation discussion... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 1213 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


At 12z Monday an upper level low was located off the coast of 
British Columbia with a +120kt upper level jet digging into the 
based of this upper level low. Across the western United States at 
the 500mb level there were several thermal troughs embedded in a 
westerly flow. One was located in northwest Colorado with the next 
thermal trough located across eastern Oregon/northwest Nevada. A 
wedge of warm 700mb temperatures were located just east of The 
Rockies with a pool of higher dew point present just east of these 
warm temperatures which extended from western Nevada to the 
Panhandle of Texas. At the 850mb level a southerly flow was 
present across eastern Colorado and western Kansas along with some 
warm air advection. At the surface a moist southeast flow was 
present west of an area of high pressure that was located across 
eastern Nebraska/eastern Kansas. The area of higher dew points 
extended from western Oklahoma into southeast Colorado. 


&& 


Update... 
issued at 915 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Surface, 850mb and 700mb upper level analysis indicating veering 
winds, moisture, and warm air advection occurring across portions 
of far western/southwest Kansas earlier this morning. Latest satellite 
loop has also indicated increasing cloud cover in this region over 
the past few hours. Based on the latest rap, hrrr, and what 
little 12z NAM that is available via AWIPS it appears this warm air 
advection/isentropic lift will continue through the early 
afternoon. Depth of this moist layer appears too shallow for 
drizzle development so at this time will hold off mentioning any 
precipitation at this time. Based on this increasing cloud cover 
will also adjust hourly temperatures through 21z. Did not however 
adjust maximum temperatures today just yet given several hours of sun 
will still be possible late this afternoon. 


&& 


Short term...(today through tonight) 
issued at 316 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Extrapolation of the area of showers and thunderstorms would move it 
south of the Oklahoma border by sunrise. Skies will be clearing across 
southwest Kansas behind the shortwave this morning. The models are 
showing some instability across far western Kansas this afternoon. 
Widely scattered thunderstorms should develop over eastern Colorado 
this afternoon. A few of these could move into far western Kansas by 
late afternoon or early evening. The models are showing some increase 
in middle level warm advection that propagates east across western Kansas 
tonight. Enough vertical motion in the middle levels could get a few showers 
and thunderstorms going through the night especially in the area from 
Dodge City through Hays. Will added some small probability of precipitation along with a mention 
of isolated thunder to the forecast for tonight. 


High temperatures today should climb into the low to middle 80s 
across south central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs may be 
tempered somewhat out along the Colorado border where upper 70s to 
low 80s are expected. 


Long term...(tuesday through sunday) 
issued at 316 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Medium range models show an upper level trough of low pressure 
tracking southeast across the Pacific northwest Tuesday and into 
the Rocky Mountain region Tuesday night. Areas of increasing 
divergence aloft will develop downstream of the trough axis as this 
system approaches. Meanwhile, a prevailing Lee side trough of low 
pressure will continue to strengthen across extreme eastern Colorado 
Tuesday. Additionally, a prevailing low level southeasterly upslope 
flow across the western High Plains will help advect moisture 
northward into the region, not to mention increasing low level 
forcing in conjunction with the surface trough. So even with a 
fairly weak flow aloft present, the chance for isolated showers 
and thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out across portions of 
southwest Kansas Tuesday, particularly with plenty of instability 
present with cape values ranging from around 1000 to 1500 j/kg. 
Drier conditions are likely Wednesday as a developing surface low 
Lee of The Rockies strengthens ahead of the approaching upper level 
trough helping to push a dryline eastward across much of southwest 
Kansas. 


The upper level trough is then prognosticated to cut eastward across the 
northern plains Thursday before lifting northeast into the western 
Great Lakes region bringing widespread precipitation chances to the Dakotas 
and Nebraska. An attendant cold front is projected to push south 
into western Kansas sometime Thursday before stalling out across the 
region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop Wednesday 
night into Thursday but remain just off our north across the 
northern plains where the best dynamic support aloft, including a 
strong +100kt upper level jet, will be set up. 


Temperatures will continue to warm up going into Tuesday as Lee side 
troughing strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will draw warmer 
air north into western Kansas with 850 mb temperatures ranging from 
around 20c across central Kansas to the upper 20s(c) across far 
southwest Kansas. Look for highs up into the middle to upper 80s(f) 
across central Kansas to the 90s(f) elsewhere Tuesday afternoon. 
For Wednesday, as the upper level trough approaching from the west 
digs southeast across the northern rockies, an attendant cold front 
is forecast to push just into northwestern Kansas before stalling 
out. A deepening surface low across eastern Colorado will keep a 
strong low level southerly flow intact across south central and 
southwest Kansas with 850 mb temperatures in the middle to upper 20s(c). 
Widespread 90s(f) are expected across south central and southwest 
Kansas Wednesday afternoon. A slight drop in temperatures is likely 
Thursday as the Lee side surface low quickly lifts northeast 
allowing the frontal boundary to sag further south across western 
Kansas. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon) 
issued at 1213 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Gusty southeast flow will continue through the rest of the day as 
an area of high pressure at the surface crosses eastern Kansas. 
Overnight the winds will subside slightly but by early Tuesday 
gusty south winds will quickly increase to around 20kts by 15z 
Tuesday. A weak upper level trough will move across western Kansas 
overnight but at this time moisture ahead of this wave appears to 
be mainly confined at and above the 850mb level. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
ddc 84 56 92 64 / 10 20 20 0 
gck 83 58 95 62 / 10 20 20 10 
eha 79 57 95 62 / 20 20 20 10 
lbl 81 57 94 64 / 10 20 20 10 
hys 84 56 91 65 / 10 10 20 0 
p28 83 52 87 66 / 10 10 10 0 


&& 


Ddc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...burgert 
synopsis...burgert 
short term...gerard 
long term...jjohnson 
aviation...burgert