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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 61 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
1229 PM CDT Mon may 21 2012 




..updated aviation discussion... 




Discussion... 
/328 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 
short range (today through wednesday)... 


Not much more can be said of the weather for the next 2 days that 
hasn't been said in previous discussions. While the region is in 
need of some rain, today will be a great day to get outdoors to 
enjoy a wonderful day highlighted by full sunshine, low humidity, a 
light breeze and seasonal temperatures. Great sleeping weather is 
also in store tonight and again Tuesday night. High pressure will 
build through Iowa and MO today with a quick return to southerly flow 
as the high pressure retreats east on Tuesday. The steady warmup 
will continue through Wednesday. 


Rain chances are next to nil through Wednesday as weak northwest 
flow is quickly pushed aside by a progressive upper ridge on 
Tuesday. While the models remain consistent in broadening an upper 
trough eastward through the northern and central rockies and 
adjacent plains the height falls are negligible over the mid MO 
River Valley. Thus the plains cold front will fail to make it this 
far eastward. This will allow the elevated mixed layer/cap to 
strengthen from additional warming aloft and prevent any convection 
from moving into the County Warning Area. 


Mj 


Medium range (thursday-monday)... 


Medium range concerns are focused on temperatures heading into the 
Memorial Day Holiday weekend along with precipitation chances early 
in the period. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly weaker 
and slower in the development of long wave ridging focused over the 
southeastern US. This may allow mid-level troughing to extend 
slightly further south than previously thought, and may allow a weak 
front to sink southeast into northwestern Missouri by Thursday 
night. Models indicate quite the eml by Thursday afternoon, but 
cooling aloft forced by shortwave energy within the upper trough may 
be strong enough for thunderstorm activity to develop in northern Kansas 
Thursday night and ride northeast along the boundary into 
northwestern Missouri. Have bumped up to low chance pops. Depending 
on what happens Thursday night, could have a high influence on 
temperatures Friday as lingering mid-level clouds could hold the 
front in northern Missouri. 


The mid-level ridge will finally begin to build Friday, forcing the 
lingering boundary northward Friday night. Once again, northwestern 
Missouri will have a chance for thunder which will quickly shift 
into Nebraska and Iowa Friday night. Model trends continue to 
support near record temperatures Saturday and perhaps Sunday as 
southwest flow pulls substantial warm air aloft into the region. 
Current forecasted temps are above consensus guidance, which is 
biased by climatology and a cool boundary layer GFS solution. Did 
cool down Sunday temperatures a degree or two, as strong return flow 
will usher in higher moisture values and low-level temps cool 
somewhat. 


Next upper trough will begin to move into the northern plains by 
Monday which will begin to send the front back southeast into the 
ridge. Frontal progression will mostly likely slow as it fights the 
high heights to the southeast, setting up a reasonable chance for 
rain next Monday and Tuesday. 


31 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 18z tafs...with a dry surface high sliding across the Kansas- 
Missouri over the next 24 hours, VFR conditions are expected to 
prevail. Surface wind will adjust to the south east overnight, before 
veering around to the southwest Tuesday. 


Cutter 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office eax