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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 54 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 63 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas 
1230 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


..update to aviation... 


Discussion... 


Forecast focus on temperatures in the short term and then on precipitation chances 
toward end of week. 


Latest surface map shows ridge settling into the area with robust warm air advection 
already ongoing across the High Plains where elevated convection 
had recently developed across central NE. Other storms were 
developing in vicinity of the 850mb front across OK. 


For northeast Kansas for today...look for surface-850mb ridging to provide 
another pleasant light wind low humidity day with highs likely to 
reach near Sunday/S values with most spots in the 75 to 80 degree range. 


Strong warm air advection/moisture advection will be focused to our north tonight 
so will keep conds dry. Upper ridge axis will move across the area 
on Tuesday with breezy and warmer conds as deep low pressure develops 
across the northern High Plains. 


Large upper trough will develop across the northern High Plains 
weds-Thu. Wednesday should be a hot and breezy day with highs expected 
to reach or exceed 90. Strong capping should inhibit convection 
within the warm sector during the day so conds will remain dry. 
Convection should develop across NE on Wednesday night as a short wave 
trough moves across the Dakotas. This in turn should help to push 
the front into Kansas during the day Thursday. Low confidence in whether 
any thunderstorms and rain can develop during the day Thursday given uncertainty in exact 
evolution of the upper trough. For now have kept the forecast dry 
however the boundary will be in the area so temperatures may be a bit 
cooler. Best chance for rain will occur Thursday night as the surface/850mb 
front in the area will serve as a focus for overnight convection 
so have stayed close to guidance for precipitation chances. 


The front will remain in the vicinity on Friday however it is 
uncertain as to whether heights will begin to rise as the western 
trough deepens and cuts off. In the absence of any stronger 
shortwave precipitation chances may be modest at best despite the warm front 
so we will keep only a slight chance in the forecast. Overall scenario 
into the weekend is for warmer temperatures and dry conds for now as the 
main energy with the western trough should remain well northwest of the 
area along with any low level focus for precipitation. 




&& 


Aviation... 


High pressure will move across eastern Kansas today and tonight with 
mostly clear skies and VFR conditions. Winds will be easterly this 
afternoon and become light southeast tonight. As the high moves 
off to the east Tuesday morning...they should increase from the 
south. 


Gdp 


&& 


Top watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$