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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 36 °
• Low: 29 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 38 °
• Low: 31 °
• Snow

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 45 °
• Low: 32 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 32 °
• Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 43 °
• Low: 27 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
957 PM EST sun Feb 12 2012 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will cross the region tonight into Monday. A broad 
but weak area of low pressure will bring snow Monday night and 
Tuesday. High pressure will build back in on Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/... 
high pressure is centered over the south central Continental U.S.. skies will 
stay clear tonight as the high center moves to northern Alabama. 
Radiational cooling will be helped by clear skies and a thin snow 
cover. However...there should be just enough wind to prevent 
temperatures from free falling. Current temperatures are running a 
few degrees warmer than forecast and have thus warmed up 
overnight lows a tad. Lows will generally be in the middle and upper 
teens..except slightly cooler in the normally sheltered/low lying 
spots. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/... 
clouds will increase Monday ahead of a low amplitude trough 
entering the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures will be boosted a 
bit as warm advection occurs on a southwesterly flow...with highs 
reaching the 30s. 


An area of precipitation will move in Monday night as the weak 
trough progresses into the Ohio Valley. Models are in general 
agreement with respect to timing and strength of this system. An 
initial shot of snow will develop in an area of isentropic lift 
well ahead of the trough late Monday night and Tuesday morning. 
Another period of precipitation may occur Tuesday afternoon as 
lift is enhanced by a vorticity maximum situated near the trough axis. 
Current model sounding profiles and quantitative precipitation forecast indicate 1 to 2 inches of 
snow accumulation. Effects on travel will be mitigated by above 
freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon which will change some of 
the precipitation to rain. Snow will change completely to rain in 
southern locations where temperatures are forecast to approach 40. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... 
split upper level flow regime to continue with surface high pressure 
building east of the region on Wednesday. This will provide dry 
weather and near normal temperatures at middle week. 


The flow backs ahead of southern stream shortwave which ejects from 
the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. 


Will spread chance probability of precipitation in from the SW late Wednesday night and then 
bump the probability of precipitation up to likely on Thursday. Based on thermal profiles 
expect a wintry mix to transition to all rain with iln/S area being 
on the warm side of the system. There may be a brief transition back 
to snow prior to ending Thursday night. 


Surface high pressure to nose into the region on Friday. Numerical 
models differ with GFS digging northern stream trough through the Great Lakes 
Friday afternoon/Friday night while the European model (ecmwf) is slower with this system 
dropping through the Great Lakes Sat night/sun. Will go with slower 
solution and with limited moisture will limit probability of precipitation to slight chance across 
the far north late Sat night and early Sunday. Expect temperatures to 
continue near or slightly above normal for the period Friday into 
next weekend with highs generally ranging from near 40 north to middle 
40s south. 


&& 


Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/... 
surface high pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley 
this evening will move east to a position off the southeast U.S. Coast 
by 00z Tuesday. 


Clear skies overnight will give way to thickening middle and high 
level clouds on Monday ahead of the next weather system. 
Warm...moist advection ahead of the system will bring snow to the 
region...mainly between 06z and 12z Tuesday. 


Outlook...IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR visibilities expected Tuesday. MVFR/IFR 
ceilings will likely linger Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 
MVFR/IFR ceilings/visibilities expected Thursday and Thursday night. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...coniglio 
near term...coniglio/Hickman 
short term...coniglio 
long term...Arkansas 
aviation...Hickman