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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 36 °
• Low: 29 °
• Ice Pellets

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 40 °
• Low: 29 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 32 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 47 °
• Low: 29 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
604 PM CST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update... 
updated aviation section. No update to public section. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Tuesday/... 
starting with the event for Monday and Monday night first. Model 
preference is a blend of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS. They are slightly 
colder than the NAM. Will explain that later. Not much has changed 
with onset timing Monday. Most of the day east of the Mississippi 
River will be dry as the atmosphere tries to saturate down. Over 
southeast Missouri...the saturation down process will occur 
through the morning...with increasing snow chances by afternoon. 
The band of wintry precipitation should have its greatest impact on the 
west 2/3 of the area in the 00z-06z time frame as the activity 
moves east...lingering after midnight from southwest Indiana into 
the pennyrile region of west Kentucky. 


With respect to model preferences. We feel the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are 
more accurately portraying the idea...that diabatic and cooling 
from aloft process will be able to offset the low tropopause warm air advection through 
the early and middle evening hours...thus favoring more wintry 
precipitation...such as snow or sleet. The NAM is warmer and 
introduces more liquid precipitation. Its not an easy call. But given the 
-23/-24c air at 500 mb when ample moisture is in the dentritic growth 
zone...lapse rates exceeding 6... -6/-7c air at 700 mb...think 
the NAM may be a tad too warm. Also think the low tropopause thermal 
ridge will work north into the County warning forecast area...about the time the most 
efficient precipitation rates will be letting up from west to 
east. Having said that... we will remain open to the idea of mixed 
wintry precipitation...mostly over the southern 1/2 of the area...which 
may lead to reduced snow totals...vs if it were all snow. So...in 
a nutshell... will mention just snow over the northern 1/3 of the 
area...snow or sleet central...and snow...sleet and a chance of 
rain south....esp west Kentucky. 


Given the uncertainty with respect to precipitation type...amounts et cetera. 
We have opted to hold on issuing an advisory...given this is 
mostly a third period event. Will continue with a Special Weather 
Statement instead. One other change in the models. The GFS has 
backed off quantitative precipitation forecast to something more along the lines of the European model (ecmwf). The 
NAM remains the highest with totals. HPC amounts are much closer 
to what we have and what a blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) depicts. HPC 
has also eliminated accumulating ice from their internal graphics 
as well. In terms of accumulation...we have not changed that too 
much either. Generally less than 1 inch south and east of the Ohio 
River...to perhaps 1 or maybe 2 elsewhere. Road conditions may or 
may not be as much of a concern as once thought...with surface temperatures 
near 32f. Treatment should help. However if rates are sufficient 
enough through the late day and early night time hours...slick 
spots could become likely...given the cold conditions in place. 


The precipitation should depart fairly quickly Tuesday from west to east. 
As the deeper moisture moves away Monday night into Tuesday...there 
could be some lingering drizzle...maybe even freezing drizzle if 
some areas are below 32f. Just another thing that will have to be 
watched on the backside of the system. 


With respect to surface temperatures. We went more along the lines of the 
European model (ecmwf) and GFS 2 meter temperatures Monday night. Numerical guidance 
appeared to be too warm. Evaporative cooling and precipitation should 
bring the temperatures down at precipitation onset. 


Tonight...just an increase in high clouds...with temperatures falling off 
quickly this evening as winds go light. Temperatures may level off later 
tonight. 


Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/... 
after a brief dry spell in the wake of the early week winter weather 
system...the next storm system will approach the area on Wednesday. 
Fortunately...temperature profiles appear warm enough to justify an 
all rain forecast with this precipitation episode. As low pressure 
approaches...clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. The 
potential for light rain will begin to impact locations mainly along 
and west of the Mississippi River by afternoon. The highest 
likelihood for rain still appears to be Wednesday night as low 
pressure drags a cold front through the area. Rain will taper off 
from west to east on Thursday as the weather system shifts to the 
east. Rainfall amounts still look to average one tenth to one 
quarter inch. 


After this system departs...dry weather will return late in the week 
as high pressure builds in. The air mass behind the Thursday frontal 
passage will continue this Winters theme of unseasonably mild 
weather...with highs near 50 and lows in the lower to middle 30s Friday 
through Sunday. The warmest weather of the week will be associated 
with the weather systems approach and passage...as temperatures only 
drop into the lower and middle 40s Wednesday night before rebounding 
into the lower and middle 50s Thursday. At this point...any additional 
precipitation seems likely to hold off beyond the range of this 
forecast. 


&& 


Aviation... 
an axis of high surface pressure will pass through the pah forecast area 
this evening. This will result in light and variable winds and clear 
skies for most of the night. After sunrise Monday...srly winds are 
expected to pick up a bit...and sky cover will start out as a middle 
cloud deck...lowering all day eventually to MVFR. West of the MS 
river...there is a decent chance of primarily snow falling in the 
late afternoon as a middle level shortwave approaches. Some visibilities there 
may drop to MVFR levels through 00z. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...none. 
Illinois...none. 
In...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...cn 
aviation.....Db 
long term....rjp 
fire weather......rjp