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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 38 °
• Low: 31 °
• Ice Pellets

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 40 °
• Low: 31 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 54 °
• Low: 34 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 49 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
402 am CST Monday Feb 13 2012 


Discussion.../today and tonight/ 
very complex/dynamic weather system to affect the region over the next 24 
hours or so. 


Due to the late hour...will not get too fancy with the details. As 
a storm system pushes east out of the Central Plains 
today...precipitation will begin to spread eastward across our 
County Warning Area. Precipitation types mentioned were determined after looking 
through a plethora of soundings...critical thicknesses...etc. 


This morning precipitation should be all snow as it begins to move 
across the western sections of our County Warning Area. This afternoon a rain snow 
mix is possible generally south of a line from New Madrid Missouri 
to Paducah to Central City Kentucky...with all snow elsewhere. 


This evening a warm bulge of low level temperatures will push into 
the southwest half of the County Warning Area creating a thermal profile favorable for 
freezing precipitation...with all snow over the northeast half. After 
midnight low level temperatures warm enough to produce rain south 
of a line from New Madrid Missouri to Paducah to Central City 
Kentucky...a snow/freezing rain mix over the northeast sections... 
and rain or freezing rain elsewhere. 


By Tuesday morning the only precipitation left should be rain and limited 
to the northeast sections of the County Warning Area. Very dynamic thermal profile 
with this system. The good news is that quantitative precipitation forecast amounts are not that 
high...but enough to produce snow and/or ice at any given location 
to cause travel problems during the next 24 hours. 


Even though snowfall is expected to remain below advisory 
criteria...the addition of freezing precipitation and the 
potential travel complications tonight into early Tuesday 
morning...felt that an advisory would be warranted. Issued two 
winter weather advisories based on timing. Expired them at the 
same time but based on the evolution of the system...counties can 
be deleted as needed. 


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... 
the main concern Tuesday will be black ice or slick spots prior to 
sunrise. This cold be an issue across the entire forecast area even where 
precipitation has ended due to the fact the Road temperatures below freezing and 
rain possibly washing off treatment at least in some locations. Will 
monitor this closely and follow up with an Special Weather Statement should this hazard 
come to fruition. 


After this event high pressure will build in briefly and drift to 
the east allowing the start of a warming trend as the flow becomes 
southwest. This will bring slightly above normal temperatures to the area 
and another storm system. Have introduced an isolated thunder Wednesday 
afternoon west of the Mississippi River and Wednesday night east of the miss. 
The 00 Monday GFS is advertising weak cape around 100 j/kg working its 
way across the area between a 1k and 500 mb. It also shows k 
indicies 30 to 35 and showalters zero and slightly below. This would 
be general thunder and nothing more at this time. By Thursday start to 
advect the precipitation chance east and out of the area by Thursday afternoon. 


After the passage of this middle week system high pressure builds in 
and return to quiet weather with near normal temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation... 
high surface pressure will move eastward and away from the pah forecast area 
overnight. Light and variable winds and mostly clear skies will give 
way to a gentle srly flow and increasing cloudiness as a middle level 
shortwave approaches. After sunrise...srly winds will continue to pick 
up to 8-12 knots as ceilings fall steadily all day. West of the MS 
river...there is a decent chance of precipitation falling in the late 
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will accompany the precipitation...eventually dropping 
to IFR generally north of the Ohio River and northern parts of southeastern MO. 
By midnight...nearly all the region should have some form of 
precipitation...be it sleet or snow. The taf sites are expected to receive 
primarily snow...and visibilities may drop to IFR levels at times. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Tuesday for 
kyz001>022. 


MO...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Tuesday for 
moz112-114. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for moz076-086- 
087-100-107>111. 


Illinois...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Tuesday for 
ilz075>078-081>083-085>087-089>091-093-094. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Tuesday for ilz080-084- 
088-092. 


In...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 am CST Tuesday for 
inz081-082-085>088. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...jp 
long term....kh