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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 38 °
• Low: 31 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 41 °
• Low: 31 °
• Snow

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 50 °
• Low: 38 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 56 °
• Low: 36 °
• Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 45 °
• Low: 27 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jackson Kentucky 
902 PM EST sun Feb 12 2012 


Update... 
issued at 839 PM EST sun Feb 12 2012 


No significant changes to the overnight forecast were warranted at this time 
with high pressure steadily building into the region. Hourly T curve 
is generally within a degree or two of observation...and forecast lows in 
the middle teens appear to be on track. The only changes were to update 
the dew points...which are generally running about 3 to 6 degrees 
higher than forecast. Otherwise...the current forecast appears to be 
good to go. 


&& 


Short term.../tonight through Tuesday night/ 


Quiet conditions and high pressure will reign across eastern Kentucky 
for the next 24 hours. The only forecast challenger here will feature 
a Ridge Valley split tonight and the approach of cloud cover ahead of 
the approaching system that will provide our weather Monday night. 


Concerning this feature...would favor the NAM and Euro solution at it 
onset will go with a later approach of good chance probability of precipitation into Monday 
night after 06z. At onset...with colder temperatures still in 
place..it looks like most precipitation will start as snow with the 
exception of some of the southern counties where temperatures in the 
late evening still hovering in the middle 30s...but these areas will 
soon change over to snow. However...after 06z Monday night...a warm 
air push from the south at the 900 to 950mb area would suggest that 
some of the valleys in the southern counties and where temperatures still 
hang around 32 at the surface...there could be a change over to sleet. 
The concern here is where some sheltered valleys dont get scoured 
out...some freezing rain is also possible. Also...with some dry air 
at the surface at onset...there is likely to be some wet bulbing too... 
possibly getting surface temperatures cold enough for sleet and or freezing 
rain before the surface warms up and p type changes to all rain later 
in the day. Will pass this onto the next shift and put it into the 
severe weather potential statement. 


Given the progressive flow...the system is rather short lived and 
exits the area by Tuesday evening with little cooler air moving in 
behind the system. This will allow temperatures to rebound nicely. 


Long term.../Wednesday through Sunday/ 


Despite being between systems on Wednesday...cloud cover will likely 
be rather extensive as high clouds from an approaching upstream 
system flow in quickly behind any departing low clouds from the 
preceding system. Rain will then overspread the region Wednesday 
night into early Thursday morning as low pressure tracks up the Ohio 
Valley and a trailing cold front passes through east Kentucky. There 
is some question as to the exact timing of the frontal passage so 
will cap probability of precipitation at 60 percent Thursday morning for now until that bit 
of uncertainty clears up. Otherwise...current indications are that 
this will be an all rain event and that the front will be to our 
east by Thursday afternoon with just some lingering Post-frontal 
showers expected to hang on into Friday morning. Some of these may 
be in the form of snow showers late Thursday night/early Friday 
morning as weak cold advection occurs behind the system. Moisture is 
limited by that time though. 


The model spread in the prognosticated synoptic pattern then increases 
dramatically beyond Thursday night and confidence in the forecast 
details takes a nosedive. I would tend to favor the European model (ecmwf) based 
largely on reasoning offered in the HPC extended discussions...but 
will keep with the generic model blend approach into next weekend for 
our gridded forecast. This equates to a seasonably cool forecast 
next weekend...with a slight chance of a rain or snow shower by 
Sunday. 


&& 


Aviation.../00z to 24z/...updated 


High pressure will dominate the period bringing clear skies and 
diminishing winds to the terminals overnight. Middle and upper level 
clouds will begin to increase Monday afternoon ahead of the next 
weather system approaching the Ohio Valley...with increasing 
S to SW winds during the late afternoon. 




&& 


Jkl watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Update...mb 
short term...shallenberger 
long term....Abe 
aviation...mb