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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
1253 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Aviation update...regarding 18z taf issuance. A few showers and 
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. This 
as a cold front approaches the region from the north...and 
shortwave energy aloft advances across the area from the 
northwest. Model guidance currently downplaying extend of 
precipitation...probably keying on extent of drier air aloft. 
Should however convection/thunderstorms develop...a near classic 
inverted-vee forecast sounding at all terminals would suggest an enhanced 
potential for strong downdrafts and outflows with more vigorous 
storms. Carrying thunderstorms in the vicinity at this time with conditions overall 
expected to remain in VFR. 


&& 


Marcotte 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1011 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Update... 
the morning upper air sounding from klch shows a moist and 
unstable atmosphere is in place. Trigger temperature at 83f and as 
that is beginning to be reached...radar and satellite show cumulus 
development with a few small light showers. With northerly flow 
seen today...convection with sea breeze will be held in check 
close to the coast until late in the afternoon when it may try to 
advance inland. However...short wave from the Southern Plains will move 
down toward the forecast area this afternoon...helping to provide 
lift...along with the daytime heating...for scattered showers and 
a few thunderstorms to form...over central Louisiana. This 
activity will move southward during the late afternoon and 
evening. Although isolated activity can occur now at any time...best 
chance and coverage of activity will probably be after 2 PM. Any 
isolated storm that develops during maximum heating this afternoon 
could be on the strong side as it taps into the high instability. 


Short wave will continue to move south during the evening with 
convection slowly decreasing with the loss of daytime heating. 


Overall forecast looks good...only made minor adjustments to first 
period grids. Updated zone to remove patchy fog wording. 


Rua 


Previous discussion... /issued 723 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Discussion... 
for 12z taf issuance. 


Aviation... 
current surface observation report mainly VFR conditions prevailing although a 
brief bout of MVFR visibilities will be possible at all terminals 
but kbpt where winds are a little higher. Conditions should be VFR 
for most of the morning and through the afternoon. Watching a pair 
of shortwave troughs and associated convection...first area over 
cntl MS/northestern la dropping south-southeastward and the next over OK. Feel the 
first wave will pass to our east and not be an issue. Combo of 
the second vorticity...an approaching frontal boundary...good moisture 
and heating...and a weakening cap should lead to some shower and 
storm development this afternoon. However confidence is not high 
enough at this time for prevailing or even tempo probability of precipitation and time constraints 
do not allow for a probability group...therefore have just kept inherited 
vicinity mentions. 


25 


Previous discussion... /issued 415 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Discussion...a weak ridge at the surface remains over the region 
this morning, however the middle to upper level ridge is weakening. The 
surface ridge is centered over the plains while a short wave is 
eroding the middle to upper ridge over East Texas and la. This will 
allow for isolated to scattered storms by afternoon to develop and move 
south bound in the light north flow. The sea breeze will push 
inland as well kicking off a few more storms, and by late 
afternoon and early evening the boundary will retreat back south 
with scattered convection. Due to cool and dry middle levels and decent 
amount of cape, an isolated strong storm or two can not be ruled 
out, mainly away from the coast and coastal waters where temperatures 
will be higher. A brief period of frequent lightning and small 
hail may be possible in the stronger storms. The lapse rates are 
not great and over all moisture is fairly low which will limit 
convection. A few more isolated storms will be possible again 
during Tuesday evening, however by Wednesday the middle level ridge 
will begin to become re-established suppressing convection. Dry 
and warm weather is expected beyond middle week and through the 
remainder of the forecast. 


Marine...outside of a few showers and storms today and Tuesday tranquil 
marine conditions are expected through the period. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 91 68 89 69 90 / 20 30 20 10 10 
kbpt 90 68 90 69 90 / 20 30 20 10 10 
kaex 91 65 90 64 92 / 30 30 20 10 10 
klft 91 69 89 70 90 / 20 30 20 10 10 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$