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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 66 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
1026 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Discussion... 
15z surface analysis showing weak northerly flow across the four state 
region. A cold front was very difficult to pick out in the 
pressure analysis but was likely residing across our extreme 
southern zones. Best dewpoint gradient was just north of the 
region and this matches up well with latest laps instability 
parameters which is showing descent cape building as far north as 
southeast OK/SW Arkansas. 


Scattered convection that was advancing southeast from S OK/North Texas 
continues to dissipate quickly and is tied more towards elevated 
thetae axis at 700mb. If we follow this trend with the latest 12z 
WRF output...this feature continues to weaken as it moves south 
into the region along with the elevated boundary. For this reason... 
have bumped probability of precipitation down to 20 percent areawide for the remainder of 
the morning into the afternoon...still showing some respect to 
dirty northwest flow aloft in the wake of the surface front. 


Concerning temperatures...warmed afternoon maximum temperatures up mainly 
south of the I-20 corridor given 24hr trends compared to this time 
on Sunday. Made just some cosmetic changes to sky/dewpoint grids... 
otherwise...no other changes were necessary. 


Updated forecast already sent...13. 


&& 


Aviation... 
cold front positioned to ease across County Warning Area today. Several boundaries 
already have a light surface flow out of the northwest and to a depth of 9kft 
off our kshv VAD wind profiler is around 20kts. Initiation of any 
isolated convection is up for grabs. Upper level low over MO and 
north Arkansas will back door over our NE County Warning Area tonight. Drier 50 degree dew 
points will edge into the I-20 corridor overnight in the wake of 
the front. Outlook is for little if any rain and warming balance 
of the week. /24/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 89 62 87 60 90 / 20 20 10 10 10 
mlu 91 61 85 59 90 / 20 20 10 10 10 
deq 85 51 84 54 88 / 20 10 10 10 10 
txk 86 57 85 60 88 / 20 10 10 10 10 
eld 88 57 85 56 89 / 20 20 10 10 10 
tyr 88 62 88 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 10 
ggg 88 61 88 62 89 / 20 10 10 10 10 
lfk 91 64 89 65 90 / 20 20 10 10 10 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


13/24