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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 57 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 59 °
• Fog

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
205 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Synopsis... 
low pressure off the Atlantic Seaboard will push increasing 
moisture and clouds into the region to start the week...with 
unsettled weather and the threat of showers and thunderstorms 
through Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 7 PM this evening/... 
as of 138 PM...showers have moved northward into mainly the 
eastern Catskills...middle Hudson Valley...southern Taconics and 
Litchfield Hills. Still some embedded moderate to heavy rainfall 
rates...but overall trend since this morning has been for a 
decrease in the rainfall rates that occurred over the New York 
City area this morning. Have increased probability of precipitation in these areas where 
showers are occurring and adjusted probability of precipitation for areas farther north 
based on current movement and trends. Temperatures warmest across the 
northern half of the area where there are breaks in the clouds. 
The trend for the afternoon will be temperatures leveling off as clouds 
thicken. Decreased mention of thunder to isolated...as current 
analysis depicts any appreciable cape to be west of our area early 
this afternoon but cannot rule out isolated thunder. 


Surface ridge of high pressure is expected to pull northeast away 
from the forecast area as upper trough becomes anchored across the eastern 
third of the US. Two surface low pressure systems are associated 
with this trough with one low pressure system moving northwest 
through the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region with a second low pressure system well 
east of Cape Hatteras. The first low pressure system has a coastal 
front that is expected to be anchored along the southern New 
England coast for much of today before lifting northeast toward 
Cape Cod this evening. Expect that with this setup clouds will 
rapidly increase from southeast to northwest today with scattered 
showers and even a few thunderstorms developing and spreading from 
southeast to northwest mainly during this afternoon. While not 
expecting any severe thunderstorms...some of the showers and 
thunderstorms may contain brief heavy downpours especially with 
precipitable waters  quickly increasing to 1.25 to 1.50 inches by this afternoon. 


&& 


Short term /7 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
tonight through Wednesday night...the first area of low pressure 
drifting the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region continues to weaken as the low 
pressure center east of Cape Hatteras lifts north to southeast of 
Cape Cod by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile a weak cold front with 
several waves of low pressure moving along it works into western 
New York. Have placed the highest probability of precipitation during the short term 
period in the tonight through Tuesday time frame as the cold front 
is likely to pick up some Atlantic moisture. The cold front will 
continue to slow as it tries to move through the forecast area on Wednesday 
and may stall across southeast portions of the forecast area. Have slight 
chance probability of precipitation north with chance probability of precipitation southeast Wednesday into 
Wednesday night. Also have the chance of thunderstorms in the 
forecast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening and mainly across 
southeast half of forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as 
showalter indices close to zero and mlmucapes at 500-1500 j/kg. 
Precipitable waters  remain fairly high between 1.25 and 1.50 inches and still 
expect that some thunderstorms may produce locally heavy 
downpours. Expect highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to middle 70s 
with highs on Wednesday in the middle 70s to around 80. Lows Monday 
night through Wednesday night are generally expected to be in the 
50s. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Monday/... 
the eastern Seaboard will remain under a mean trough with a cut off 
upper low over the Middle Atlantic States. Latest NCEP model suite 
and international guidance suggest the average relative humidity 
between the 850-500mb layer will remain above 50%. Combine that 
with daytime heating and/or differential heating boundaries could 
support the chance/slight-chance for convective activity for the 
second half of this week. However...coverage will not be too 
extensive but with a light wind pattern aloft...convective activity 
is expected to be slow movers. As precipitable water values over 1 
inch...it will be rather humid and with 850mb temperatures between +10c and 
+14c...temperatures will be mild. 


There remains signals for a cold front dropping south through 
the region some time during the time window between Friday night and 
Saturday night next weekend. Differences continue in guidance and 
ensembles as to the timing of the frontal passage and just how much of a cool 
down we may see after the frontal passage for the second half of the 
weekend. So...based on the upper dynamics passing well north of the 
region and very little low level jet forcing and limited 
frontogenesis...just going isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms Friday night with some potential drying and cooling on 
Sunday. But again...we will have a better handle on the character 
of the front as we approach next weekend. 


Temperatures for the period should average near normal and 
precipitation also near normal. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/... 
Atlantic moisture streaming north/northwestward into the region will 
cause deteriorating conditions at the kgfl/kalb/kpou/kpsf taf sites 
this afternoon and evening. Visibilities have already been IFR at kpou at 
times early this afternoon...and expect MVFR to occasional IFR conditions 
there through 00z Tuesday. As of 145 PM rain was near kpsf/kalb and 
will forecast VFR to occasional MVFR ceilings there...with VFR to occasional IFR 
visibilities due to possible moderate/heavy rain through 00z Tuesday. At kgfl 
rain will take a couple more hours to reach there...so VFR until 
20z...then VFR/occasional MVFR conditions through 00z. After 00z expect 
MVFR to occasional IFR conditions at the taf sites (especially IFR cigs) 
thorugh the night and into Tuesday morning. There will also likely 
be a period of widespread IFR ceilings at the taf sites tonight into 
early Tuesday morning as indicated in the taf forecasts. 


Surface winds for all taf sites will be light east-southeast wind at 
less than 8 kts through the taf period...with mainly light and 
variable less than 5 kts for most of tonight. 


Convection is possible...but chance look low enough to leaave out of 
any of the taf forecasts for now. 


Outlook... 
Tuesday aftn-Thu...VFR/MVFR. Chance -shra/-tsra. 
Friday...VFR. No sig weather experimental at this time. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
low pressure off the Atlantic Seaboard will push increasing moisture 
and clouds into the region to start the week...with unsettled 
weather and the threat of showers and thunderstorms Monday through 
Wednesday. 


The relative humidity will drop to a range of 30 to 65 percent 
from northwest to southeast today...recover to 85 to 100 percent 
tonight...and drop to 55 to 70 percent on Tuesday. 


Winds will be south to southeast at 5 to 15 miles per hour today...south to 
southeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour tonight and south at 5 to 10 miles per hour on 
Tuesday. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
no hydrologic issues expected through today although there will be 
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. 
A slow moving upper level low pressure system will bring some 
showers and thunderstorms to our region through the middle week 
period with the best chance for thunderstorms being during the 
afternoon and evening hours today through Wednesday. Although 
widespread heavy rain is not forecast...some isolated hydrologic 
issues will be possible due to locally heavy rain from slow moving 
thunderstorms. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...11 
near term...gjm/11/jpv 
short term...11 
long term...bgm 
aviation...gjm 
fire weather...11 
hydrology...11