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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 59 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 64 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wakefield Virginia 
1200 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Synopsis... 
low pressure and unsettled conditions will persist across the area 
through midweek. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
latest surface analysis showing center of low pressure located near 
ric and moving slowly west. Pattern today supports rather high 
chances for precipitation continuing. Skies average out cloudy...with some 
partial clearing possible in southern areas. Will have likely 
probability of precipitation over northern part of forecast area...W/ chance probability of precipitation rest of area. Also 
will have isolated thunderstorms in the forecast this aftn/evening. Favor 
cooler met numbers for highs...which will be mainly in the upper 70s 
S...to lower 70s N/NE. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday/... 
unsettled conditions will dominate the weather pattern through 
midweek...not due to Alberto but rather due to an upper low that 
will be slow to move out of the area as it gets cutoff from the 
main stream of westerlies in between a ridge amplifying well north to 
Hudson Bay Canada...and another well off the southeast coast near 
Bermuda. 


Tonight...will carry chance to likely probability of precipitation mainly for the early 
evening hours..then looks like somewhat of a lull in the forcing and 
will have only 20% probability of precipitation through most of the overnight period as 
shortwave energy dives southeast from the middle MS Valley Down into the 
deep south. Skies may be partly cloudy for awhile...but west/ light 
flow and ample low level moisture should see either patchy fog 
or low stratus redevelop prior to daybreak. Mild west/ lows generally 
between 60-65. 


Tue/Wed...should see some gradual/partial clearing by late am hours 
Tuesday as southeast flow develops...but skies overall average out mostly cloudy. 
Instability on the increase by afternoon and will tend to have a little 
more in the way of thunderstorm activity than on Monday. Will have chance probability of precipitation 
for most areas (likely over the far west) by late aftn/evening. 
Again favoring cooler met guidance for highs...a little warmer 
than Monday west/ highs generally in upper 70s to lower 80s (a little cooler 
on the eastern shore). 


On Wednesday...good consensus between the GFS/NAM/ECMWF and even the 
UKMET/Gem that unsettled weather will persist as the upper low becomes 
cutoff and centered just to our SW...placing the middle Atlantic in a 
region of upper diffluence and decent lift. Went a little higher 
than numerical guidance for probability of precipitation...with a period of likely probability of precipitation 
for much of interior Virginia. Highs fairly similar to Tuesday west/ upper 70s 
to lower 80s for most (if enough sun could see a few middle 80s across 
southern Virginia/NE nc). 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
an upper level low pressure system will continue to impact the 
region through Thursday...before drifting southeast and off the 
coast Thursday night/Friday morning. Given the expected position of 
the upper low overhead...will maintain chance probability of precipitation (30%) on Thursday. 
By Friday...the low will be offshore and other than a spotty shower 
across eastern areas...Friday should be dry. Heights will be on the 
increase across the middle-Atlantic Friday as the 500 mb ridge over the 
Midwest/Tennessee Valley begins to spill east. The 500 mb ridge axis remains to 
our west next weekend but an increase in heights to between 588-590 
dm will allow for a spell of warm/hot temperatures. Northwest flow aloft 
will leave the door open for convection to drift southward over the 
top of the ridge and possibly into the middle-Atlantic region next 
weekend. Will carry slight chance probability of precipitation (20%) for now and see how things 
develop. Temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Warming 
Friday-Sunday with some 90 degree readings possible for central Virginia 
Sat/sun. Kept coolest maximum temperatures (low/middle 80s) along the coast where 
a seabreeze may develop both days next weekend. 


&& 


Aviation /16z Monday through Friday/... 
low pressure at 11z appeared to be weakening over central Virginia. 
IFR/LIFR conditions were occasionally interrupted with improving 
conditions over eastern portions due to mixing. Expect the main 
improvement will arrive in the late morning. 


Precipitation is possible across the area with the highest probability of precipitation at ric and sby after 
18z. Mentioned rain showers after 18z at those locations until early evening but 
with no restriction to visibility included. 


Conditions may go back down Monday night/Tuesday morning. With 
support from both met and mav...have ric and sby going back to 
IFR/LIFR and brought those two back down to IFR in the late evening. 
The other three taf sites may see some lowering conditions toward 
morning but left IFR out for now. 


Outlook...conditions improve once again to VFR late Tuesday morning. 
There will be a chance for mainly afternoon thunderstorms both Tuesday and an 
even better chance for precipitation Wednesday. Neither of these events 
should have the widespread IFR that occurred Sunday. 


&& 


Marine... 
surface low pressure continues to move northwest over central Virginia. Winds 
have turned to southerly and diminished below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas 
continue 5 feet over the coastal waters north of Cape Charles. Small Craft Advisory in 
effect until 22z and this may be dropped over all or portions of 
this area prior to 22z. 


As Tropical Storm Alberto moves northeast to the east of the coastal 
waters Tuesday and Wednesday...swells are expected to build over the 
area. Surface winds ahead of Alberto from wavewatch look similar to 
Euro (a model that handles Alberto fairly well per hpc) and used 
wavewatch for the seas in the coastal waters. This brings 5 feet seas 
to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night...especially over the northern 
coastal waters. These should settle down by Wednesday. Otherwise... 
marine conditions should be fairly quiet during the 
upcoming week. 


&& 


Akq watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
NC...none. 
Virginia...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz650- 
652. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...lkb 
near term...lkb/mas 
short term...lkb 
long term...jdm 
aviation...lsa 
marine...lsa