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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 55 °
• Rain Showers

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 52 °
• Fog

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 55 °
• Fog

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
1000 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will move east of the region today. A warm front 
will then move north...spreading showers into northern New 
England. A cold front will move slowly east and spark showers and 
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will be in 
control Thursday and Friday. A cold front will trigger showers and 
storms on Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
update... 
stratus deck has reached southern New Hampshire and is slowing down thanks to 
diurnal heating. Area of convection is well south of the area over 
Long Island. The hrrr initializes well with showers breaking up 
later in the day as they move north into strong ridging. Drizzle 
looks less likely and have removed it from the forecast. Rain 
looks to arrive closer to 03-06z in New Hampshire and work north. Also 
adjusted temperatures up slightly especially over southern 
sections. 


&& 


Previous discussion...surface ridging remains in control of the 
County Warning Area...at least for the early part of the day. Warm fnt is laying 
along the S coast of New England at this time...and slowly lifting northward. As 
it reaches the southern County Warning Area early this afternoon...onshore flow will promote 
low cloud and fog development. Weak lift in the lower levels will also 
mean patchy dz is possible until deeper moisture arrives late in the 
afternoon and evening. Expect cooler temperatures today as a result of increasing 
clouds. The coolest locations will be along the coast and in southern 
New Hampshire where clouds and onshore flow begin earliest. Early sun in the 
northern half of the area will allow highs to climb into the 70s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/... 
nocturnal cooling will lead to further lowering of the clouds and 
more fog/dz southeast of the mountains rain showers will be most likely along the 
coast. Abundant cloud cover will keep tonight mild...with lows 
staying mainly in the 50s. 


Low pressure developing S of New England will lift northward...and pass 
offshore as a cold fnt approaches from the west. SW flow aloft ahead 
of the fnt will encourage tropical moisture to the east of T.S. 
Alberto to surge towards the region. Precipitable water values will increase 
late tonight into Tuesday...nearing 1.5 inches at times. These types of 
values are approaching +2sd for this area...and coupled with warm 
cloud depths in excess of 10kft...brief periods of heavy rafl will be 
possible. Model guidance has been slow to latch onto heavier quantitative precipitation forecast...but 
the 20/12z European model (ecmwf) has enhanced precipitation to the north of the coastal low 
pressure. It also seemed a little too aggressive on low pressure 
development...so a compromise was used. With deep moisture and 
cold fnt approaching from the west...still feel that heavier rain 
will get squeezed out of the system somewhere. The progressive 
nature of the features will preclude any Hydro issues as things 
stand right now. 


Ahead of the cold fnt...some diurnal heating and steeper lapse 
rates could produce enough instability for thunder. Most likely 
areas would be in the CT River Valley and northern mountains 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/... 
a broad southeast flow both at the surface and aloft will continue 
from well out into the open Atlantic early Tuesday evening. This will 
allow for moisture to continue to pool across the region...with the 
thickest cloud cover and possibly some patchy fog right along the 
shoreline. 


By late Tuesday night...a weak trough of low pressure 
will pass to our east. This will bring slightly drier air into our 
region...allowing for our probability of precipitation to lower as well. However during 
the day Wednesday...the flow becomes aligned out of the south-southeast once 
again. This will allow for warm...muggy conds with increasing dew 
points and just a slight chance for a shower during the period. This 
will hold true for Thursday and Friday. Thereafter...a strong cold front 
enters the region by Saturday. Have added a chance for a thunderstorm during 
this period as the atmos becomes more unstable with time. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/... 
short term...warm fnt will lift into the area during the day 
today. VFR conds will give way to MVFR...and eventually IFR or 
lower conds as low clouds and fog move onshore in southeast flow. Expect 
kcon and especially kpsm to deteriorate in the early afternoon...with 
kpwm/kaug/krkd following in the late aftn/eve. Kleb and khie will 
remain VFR the longest...with MVFR conds possible late tonight. 


Long term...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night 
and Wednesday in showers and fog as a front moves through the 
area. VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Friday. 


&& 


Marine... 
short term...winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds 
today. Low pressure passing southeast of the waters Tuesday will build seas above 
5 feet on the outer waters during the day. Winds may briefly 
approaching 25 knots if low pressure can track further into Gulf of 
Maine. 


Long term...winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria 
through Thursday. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
sunny and dry start to the day will give way to increasing clouds 
and moisture as a warm front lifts north into the area. Scattered 
showers and high relative humidities will last until Wednesday. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...Hanes