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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 2:00 PM EDT on May 21, 2012

  At 3 PM...mostly sunny. Temperature 54. Northwest winds 12 mph. At 5 PM...mostly sunny. Temperature 54. Northwest winds 14 mph. At 7 PM...mostly clear. Temperature 53. Northwest winds 10 mph. At 9 PM...mostly clear. Temperature 51. Northwest winds 8 mph.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 79 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gaylord Michigan 
118 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Synopsis... 
issued at 333 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


A cold front pushing east of the state will usher in much cooler 
weather to kick off the work week. Other than some lingering drizzle 
this morning...dry weather will return to the North Woods as high 
pressure builds into the region. The rest of the week looks to 
remain rather quiet...with temperatures warming once again to above 
normal levels towards the second half of the week. 


&& 


Update... 
issued at 118 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Back edge of thicker stratus continues to make good eastward 
progress early this afternoon...and current trends suggest much of 
the stratus will exit the area by late afternoon or early evening. 
Still expect to see some lower clouds get "hung up" across the 
higher terrain and northeast lower where diurnal convective 
component will likely come into play...but even these spots should 
see some sunshine to help boost current very chilly temperatures. 
Otherwise...last remnants of light showers are exiting the eastern 
counties...with no additional precipitation chance expected through 
evening. 


Update issued at 1048 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Forecast on track...featuring a good deal of low cover 
overspreading much of the County Warning Area. One final batch of showers is 
working through the eastern counties as of late morning...and 
suspect these will exit stage right around midday. In their 
wake...rapid drying is taking shape across Lake Michigan within 
an axis of strong subsidence and impressive deep layer drying (see 
water vapor imagery). Still anticipate some lower clouds will hang 
on for a bit over land...helped along by a diurnal convective 
component as core of 850mb thermal troughing drops overhead (h8 
temperatures down toward +5c this afternoon). With that said...looks 
quite likely that western counties will see a good deal of 
afternoon sunshine...while lower clouds (and added stratocu) hang 
on across the east. Have re-worked cloud forecast a bit but the 
overall flavor of the going forecast looks to be intact. Winds 
will become increasingly gusty as low level lapse rates 
steepen...with gusts up to 20 knots expected in all areas through 
the afternoon...highest across northwest lower and eastern upper. 


Update issued at 723 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Earlier update working out well...though will maintain a fog and 
drizzle mention mainly across the higher terrain through middle 
morning where temperature/dew point spreads are quite low. Have seen 1/4 
mile fog around the Gaylord area (and here at the office)...but 
suspect this will be short lived as much drier air continues to 
arrive and temperature/dew point spreads open up. Lower clouds still 
look to stick around through a good chunk of the day (stratus 
early giving way to some stratocu beneath 800 mb cold pool)...but 
with a sharp clearing expected to arrive for southwest counties by 
early to middle afternoon. Have lowered going highs a couple of 
degrees western half of the County Warning Area where clouds will linger the 
longest...but still expect southeast counties will heat well on 
downslope northwest flow despite incoming colder air aloft. 


Update issued at 537 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Have reworked the short term forecast in line with latest radar 
trends...featuring just some scattered showers meandering through 
the southern counties until sunrise (remnants of overnight 
convection across Illinois/Southern Lake michigan). Have also 
largely removed drizzle mention as dry airmass upstream is rapidly 
undercutting low level cold advection...helping significantly 
raise temperature/dew point spreads. In addition...winds have rather 
rapidly cranked up across western counties in response to 
tightening gradient and first hints of incoming cold advection... 
and per latest RUC/NAM/hrrr trends...suspect this will continue 
through the afternoon...as low level lapse rates steepen with 
approach of 850mb cold pool. In fact...may well see some gusts to 
20 knots in spots through the afternoon. Current mention of some 
additional showers developing just south/east of the County Warning Area by 18z 
still looks OK as best instability and low level convergence 
should be located over The Thumb region by then. Otherwise...going 
highs for the day look just fine...with a cloudy start (especially 
western half) slowly trying to give way to increasing sunshine. 


&& 


Short term...(today through tonight) 
issued at 333 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


A busy late evening/early morning...as deep convection rumbles 
across the forecast area. Still some convective remnants streaming 
northward from downstate...as a final impulse/mesoscale convective vortex moves northward. 
But cloud tops are warming across Michigan...and in general the action 
will continue to wind down...as the cold front powering this 
activity moves across lower Michigan. Forecast challenges in the near term 
are somewhat more mundane...cloud cover today in the cool/moist 
Post-frontal airmass...and temperatures into tonight (frost potential?). 


Today...early morning rain showers remain a threat...mainly in northern 
lower...as leftover convection continues to work northward. Behind 
the cold...an area of low clouds covers eastern WI...central/Eastern 
Lake Superior...and much of Upper Michigan. This will continue to expand 
into northern Michigan during the early morning hours. Satellite and model 
forecasts agree that this deck should be pretty extensive through the 
morning. The clouds will then lift/break down (especially in western 
areas) during the afternoon...as late may sun GOES to work...and as 
high pressure builds east toward central Upper Michigan and Northern Lake 
Michigan. Should be able to lift most of the showers from today/S forecast 
(at least after 12z/8am). But will need to swap in some drizzle... 
especially this morning in the usual favored areas. Spotty drizzle 
has been reported in the Rhinelander WI area in the late evening 
hours. 850mb temperatures behind the front will be about a dozen degrees c 
cooler than Sunday. And with less sunshine...the result will be 
highs some 20 to 30 degrees f cooler. Maximum temperatures in the 60s. 


Tonight...surface high settles in across eastern Upper Michigan and 
eastern WI...with NE low-level flow hanging on across northern lower 
Michigan. Models are often too bullish on clearing when the high doesn/T 
quite get here...and when low level easterly flow continues. Expect 
that is the case here. Eastern upper and parts of northwest lower Michigan will 
clear quickly (process will be underway this afternoon)...but north 
central/NE lower Michigan will hang onto some clouds at least into 
evening. That...and the north/NE breeze...will help support temperatures a bit. 
Lows mainly 40-45...dipping into the 30s in a few of the colder 
interior locales. Guidance takes pln down to 36f...and given they 
should clear relatively early...it/S logical they would be the cold 
spot. Will add a touch of frost in the pln/Indian River area...and in 
parts of western Chippewa Colorado. 


Long term...(tuesday through sunday) 
issued at 333 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Rather calm...seasonably mild start to the extended period as 
current shortwave trough quickly exits stage right...allowing ridging 
to build back across the North Woods through the middle week period. 
Much uncertainty thereafter...tied to just how warm we get to end 
the week into next weekend...along with shower and storm 
possibilities as tight thermal gradient potentially sets up at our 
doorstep. Forecast concerns few and far between to start the 
period...and what there are center mainly on temperature trends. 
Concerns ratchet up some to end the week into next weekend...focused 
on earlier mentioned temperature and precipitation trends. 


Just not a whole lot to talk about during the middle-week period as middle 
level ridging and its surface likeness build across the northern 
lakes. Other than popping some interior cumulus under lingering cool 
airmass Tuesday and along lake breeze convergence axes...and some 
high clouds spilling into eastern upper from well upstream 
convection Tuesday night into Wednesday...should by mainly an 
uneventful period of weather under mainly clear skies. Per the may 
usual...the airmass will be quick to modify...with tuesday's highs 
in the upper 60s/lower 70s warming well into the 70s by Wednesday 
afternoon. Of course...readings will be a touch cooler near the 
lakes. 


Warming trend looks to continue into Thursday as a piece of Southern 
Plains heat dome expands northeast...courtesy of increasing south to 
southwest winds between departing ridge axis and elongated 
intermountain west and northern plains troughing. Increasing support 
for at least middle teen 850mb temperatures Thursday into Thursday 
night. Recent stretch of warm (and some (like myself)...would say 
hot) weather came courtesy of similar off the deck temperature 
profiles. Will not quite go this aggressive just yet...but 
widespread lower and middle 80s definitely looks more than likely 
over much of northern lower Michigan. Main thermal gradient and 
forced moisture convergence on nose of low level jet looks to remain 
off to the west and north. Showers/storms should remain focused in 
these areas...perhaps just clipping the far north. 


Latest guidance trends not nearly as supportive for very warm 
temperatures Friday into the upcoming weekend as they once were. 
Evidence continues to mount that western trough will essentially 
close off...while lead wave acts to flatten northern extent of 
amplifying middle Mississippi Valley ridging. This would act to force 
the core of the hottest air well to our southwest...while allowing 
cooler Canadian air to seep south into the northern Great Lakes. 
Multi-model consensus blend now heavily leaning in this direction... 
with highs by Sunday actually running cooler than normal for this 
time of year (and a good 20 to 25 degrees colder than some guidance 
recently suggested). Will definitely keep the forecast trended 
towards this cooler depiction. Still something to watch... 
however...as a less aggressive ridge chopping lead wave and even a 
slight pattern realignment would allow much warmer temperatures than 
this forecast will advertise. As for shower and storm potential...it 
all rides on where tightest thermal boundary will align. Strength of 
gradient and amount of warm and humid air available easily support 
potential multiple rounds of mesoscale convective system activity along the thermal 
gradient. Will continue to ride with periodic low end chance probability of precipitation to 
cover this possibility...with future temporal and spatial adjustments 
more than expected as pattern alignment becomes better 
realized. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon) 
issued at 118 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Improving conditions are expected through the afternoon and early 
evening as high pressure gradually noses into the region. A band 
of MVFR clouds will continue to work its way east through pln and 
apn for a few more hours...with apn the last to lose their 
ceiling. Winds will become a bit gusty for all sites as skies 
clear and deeper mixing ensues within steeper low level lapse 
rates...with some gusts to 20 knots certainly possible. Winds will 
diminish rapidly overnight as high pressure builds overhead...with 
clear skies expected. We could see a bit of shallow ground fog 
around the pln Airport where rainfall occurred last night (saw a 
bit of this across Wisconsin last night)...though this is a very 
low probability. Clear skies and winds under 10 knots from the 
northeast will prevail through much of the day on Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine... 
issued at 1048 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Quick update: issued a Small Craft Advisory earlier for the 
nearshore waters spanning The Straits on the Mackinac/Chippewa 
County side...as well as Down Lake Huron toward Sturgeon Point. 
These areas will experience both offshore flow gustiness...as 
well as some coastal convergence on mean northwest flow regime. 
Current advisory runs through 00z...but may need to expand a bit 
further on Lake Huron - will make that decision a bit later 
pending what happens this afternoon. 


Cold front exiting lower Michigan to the east early today. Somewhat 
blustery northwest winds behind the front...especially on Superior. Have 
hoisted small craft advisories for Whitefish Bay and the St Marys 
River for most of the day. Winds will go relatively light on lakes 
Michigan/Superior tonight as high pressure builds in...though on Huron north 
to NE winds will stay up somewhat. 




&& 


Apx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Michigan...none. 
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for lhz346>348. 
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for lmz341. 
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for lsz321-322. 


&& 


$$ 


Update...dl 
synopsis...mb 
short term...jz 
long term...mb 
aviation...dl 
marine...jz/Lawrence