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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 45 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 63 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 82 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 99 °
• Low: 52 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 37 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Marquette Michigan 
315 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Short term...(today through tuesday) 
issued at 402 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Today... 
dry today...but cooler with temperatures staying below 70f as 850mb temperatures 
hover between 3-6c. High pressure will build in from the plains 
states today...with northerly winds dominating Upper Michigan. The lowest 
precipitable water values today will be across mainly interior west and central 
areas...bottoming out around 0... 35 percent of normal. 
Depending on how the 0.5-1.5in of new rain influences the lowest 
levels...humidity values across the Baraga Plains may fall to near 
25 percent this afternoon. Lingering north-northwest winds of 10-15kts could 
gust to around 20kts from middle morning through late afternoon across 
much of the area...with the highest readings likely central and east 
near Lake Superior. 


Tonight... 
expect the surface high to be directly overhead between 00-06z Tuesday. 
The temperatures for tonight are tricky. Light winds and a mostly 
clear sky...should lead US to near freezing temperatures and frost over the 
west half. However...precipitable water values will be slowly increasing...to near 
0.4in or 60-75 percent of normal by daybreak Tuesday. Given the 
uncertainty...will give the later forecast period/S/ the decision as 
to whether a frost advisory will be needed across west half of Upper Michigan 
inland the Great Lakes. A few high clouds may also slide in toward 
daybreak...complicating matters. 


Tuesday... 
the return of southerly winds will begin across the County Warning Area 
Tuesday...with highs returning to normal or slightly above normal 
for this time of year /in the low 70s inland from lake mi/. 


Tuesday night... 
a warm front will push northward across much of the County Warning Area Tuesday 
night. The main results will be increased southerly winds west and 
across the downslope areas near Lake Superior. This should act to 
keep temperatures from falling too much in these locations...with nearly 
steady temperatures at iwd after midnight. 


Long term...(tuesday night through sunday) 
issued at 402 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Wednesday...in the larger scale during middle week...a ridge will be building 
over the eastern Continental U.S. While a trough deepens in The Rockies. At the 
surface...Upper Michigan will be dominated by a steady SW wind between hi pressure in the 
southeast Great Lakes and low pressure moving from near Lake Winnipeg into northwest Ontario. 
The 00z NAM/GFS generate some precipitation over the western County Warning Area later in the day 
associated with attendant cold fnt...but prefer the somewhat slower 
00z Canadian/12z European model (ecmwf) scenario that shows the fnt/precipitation shield a bit 
farther to the west given larger scale pattern that would result in a 
slower eastward spread of the fnt/shra/ts. Maintained low chance probability of precipitation over 
mainly Western Lake supply closer to axis of returning low level moisture. With at 
least some sunshine and 850 mb temperatures as hi as 16c per 00z GFS/12z 
European model (ecmwf)...expect above normal temperatures...especially in the downslope areas 
over the west half away from Lake Michigan moderation. 


Wednesday night...as the low in Ontario continues to the NE...another low is 
forecast to take shape in the plains and begin to move NE. As this new 
low moves NE along the cold fnt attendant to the Ontario low under the 
SW flow aloft...that boundary should stall out to the west. Opted to cut 
back probability of precipitation and restrict coverage to only the far west given persistence 
of dry advection in low level southerly flow to the east. Steady S wind will greatly 
reduce the diurnal fall of min temperature...with mins well above normal 
especially in the downslope areas from iwd-Keweenaw-MQT. 




Extended...as the next low pressure rides northeastward on Thursday toward the western upper 
lakes...shra/ts chances will persist over mainly the west...with above normal 
temperatures in the southerly flow ahead of this fnt that remains to the west. Once 
the low shifts NE into Ontario...the cold fnt will swing across the County Warning Area 
Thursday ngt/Fri...but since the main shortwave/sfc/accompanying dynamics 
are likely to be deflected away from the County Warning Area by hi amplitude upper ridge 
to the east...expect probability of precipitation to diminish. Tended to alter the model 
consensus forecast toward the less progressive 00z Canadian/12z European model (ecmwf) 
guidance...especially since the new 00z European model (ecmwf) strongly confirms 
these trends. Somewhat cooler and drier air will push into the upper lakes 
on Friday into Sat to the S of Hudson Bay hi pressure...but rain showers/ts chances will 
return later Sat through sun associated with a returning warm fnt as 
the upper ridge expands back into the upper lakes. If the warm fnt shifts to 
the north next sun as forecast by the 00z European model (ecmwf)...that day could be very 
warm across Upper Michigan. 
&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon) 
issued at 311 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Expect VFR conditions to dominate all 3 taf sites with dry hi pressure 
dominating this forecast period. Winds will remain a bit gusty during 
the afternoon and early evening hours at ksaw but should diminish 
after sunset. Shifted winds to the south after high shifts to the 
east. Clouds should begin to increase at the middle levels as low 
pressure approaches from the west by tomorrow afternoon...however...VFR 
conditions should still prevail. 


&& 


Marine...(for the 4 am Lake Superior forecast issuance) 
issued at 402 am EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Patchy fog will continue to diminish over east ls this morning as dry 
air works in from the west. Although some gusty northwest winds to 25 kts will 
linger over the east half this morning...expect light winds under 20 kts 
through Tuesday with hi pressure dominating. A stronger S wind up to 25 kts will 
prevail on Wednesday into Thursday night under a sharper pressure gradient between 
hi pressure to the east and a low pressure trough stretching from the plains into 
northwest Ontario. The strongest S winds are most likely over the 
central and under the sharper pressure gradient and where terrain 
influences tend to accentuate this wind. The arrival of the low pressure 
trough will result in weaker winds on Friday. 
&& 


MQT watches/warnings/advisories... 
Upper Michigan... 
frost advisory from 3 am EDT /2 am CDT/ to 8 am EDT /7 am CDT/ 
Tuesday for miz002-004-005-009>011-084. 


Lake Superior... 
none. 
Lake Michigan... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...kf 
long term...kc 
aviation...kec 
marine...kc/kf