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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 54 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 61 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 100 °
• Low: 68 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service northern Indiana 
315 PM EDT Monday may 21 2012 


Short term... 
skies were beginning to clear behind a cold front that had moved 
into central Ohio. Much drier air was spreading across the area 
behind the front. Some lingering light showers will end early this 
evening as subsidence increases over the western Great Lakes region. 
Some patchy ground fog is possible overnight...but given upstream 
dew points in the 30s...current thinking is that any fog will be 
light and local. Otherwise...conditions will be dry with 
temperatures near normal through Tuesday night. NCEP MOS of the GFS 
and NAM/WRF appear on track and are in line with the ongoing 
grids/fcst. 


&& 


Long term...Wednesday through Monday 


Favored a model blend for this package which matched up well with 
the previous forecast resulting in only minor tweaks. The main focus 
remained on temperatures as a rather pronounced warming trend is expected 
Wed-Fri...with building heat the main concern into the Holiday 
weekend. Medium range model guidance is in good agreement in driving 
a strong east Pacific jet into the western US supporting greater 
amplification. This upper jet will help carve out a mean western 
Continental U.S. Trough with a strengthening upper level ridge building northeastward to 
the lower MS valley by Friday and into the lower Ohio Valley by this 
weekend. Deep mixing in Theta-E ridge on northern fringe of this feature... 
with 850 hpa temperatures prognosticated reach the upper teens to near 20c...will 
support temperatures well above normal. A front and possible convective 
cloud debris may hold down temperatures a little in the north 
Friday/Saturday...otherwise highs should have no trouble nearing 
90f Friday through Monday...warmest Sunday. Opted for highs 
generally above the 12z allblend...at or above warmer 00z European model (ecmwf) MOS. 


A lead shortwave ejecting out of the western Continental U.S. Trough will drop 
a weakening frontal boundary into at least our northern zones by 
late Friday/Saturday. This slowing front undergoing frontolysis 
will run into the aforementioned building upper ridge. Airmass 
will become at least moderately unstable ahead/along this front. 
Although...still not all that excited for chances for convection 
this far southeast as forecast soundings depict relatively strong capping 
with 7h temperatures 10-12c. Also any support aloft looks to bypass well 
northwest of the forecast area...although cannot rule out a convectively induced 
shortwave enhancing lift and breaking the cap. Probabilities for a 
convective complex holding together into our area or isolated/scattered late 
day storms developing along the boundary are very low chance 
events. This suggests that keeping probability of precipitation below a mentionable level 
(10 percent pops) still the way to go. Surface boundary looks to wash 
out and re-focus north of the area Sunday into Monday as the 
upper ridge builds farther north. However...did add low chance probability of precipitation 
for convection Monday afternoon as the next cold/pre-frontal trough 
approaches with subtle cooling/height falls aloft. 


&& 


Aviation... 
a cold front had moved southeast out of northern Indiana with much 
drier air spreading across the area behind the front. There were 
some lingering MVFR ceilings...but deep subsidence will increase and 
allow clearing from northwest to southeast. Have updated the tafs in this 
regard to include some MVFR ceilings early...otherwise skies will 
become clear to mostly clear tonight. Some patchy ground fog is 
possible...but given upstream low dew points...current thinking 
is that any fog will be light and local. 


&& 


Iwx watches/warnings/advisories... 
in...rip current risk through late tonight for inz003. 


Michigan...rip current risk through late tonight for miz077. 


Ohio...none. 
Lm...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for lmz043-046. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...skipper 
long term...steinwedel 
aviation...skipper