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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 57 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 57 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota 
229 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Discussion... 


The onset of a much warmer and unsettled pattern is about to take 
shape tonight as residual clouds across the Dakotas this 
morning...moved across Minnesota this afternoon/evening with mainly an outside 
chance of a sprinkle. Although these clouds are the first signs of the 
pattern change...the mean upper air pattern and associated 
lift/deeper moisture will reside across the northern plains/north Minnesota 
through Wednesday. Some sprinkles or isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible late 
tonight...through Wednesday morning for wc/c and ec Minnesota...the chance/S and amount 
of deep moisture is too low to change the current dry forecast or 
deviate to a more wetter scenario. 


One consistent message is that the frontal boundary will likely 
slow even further if the current models remain strong on the 
development of the mean upper ridge across the eastern U.S. 


As with these types of weather system /anafront/...with a wetter scenario 
along and behind the front...will keep the highest chance/S of thunderstorms and rain 
in wc/c Minnesota...with only chance probability of precipitation in the east...with almost none probability of precipitation 
in wc WI. In addition to the rainfall chc/S...temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday 
will be very questionable...especially if this front slows 
further. Basically I could see highs near 60 in wc Minnesota...to upper 
80s/lower 90s in southeast Minnesota/wc WI. 


One item which the models seem to indicate is a better scenario 
for rainfall chance/S and possibility heavy precipitation late 
Wednesday/Thursday morning for the western 2/3 of the forecast area. As a strong upper 
jet moves across the upper Midwest Wednesday evening...and a surface/850 mb 
circulation is forecast to move from Nebraska...NE across S Minnesota/ec 
Minnesota...the convergence & upper level difluent pattern will induce 
widespread shra/tsra. Now...where the precipitation begins to line 
up Wednesday evening...will determine the amount of quantitative precipitation forecast and the possibility 
of localized flooding if training of thunderstorms and rain begin/S. Have introduce 
heavy rainfall for Wednesday night/Thursday morning in the current 
forecast...but this may need to be adjusted based on coverage. 


As for the ext period... 
trying to forecast one dry day in the extended period is very 
questionable due to the upper air pattern with ridging in the 
east. Although the main frontal boundary moves south of the forecast area Thursday 
night...am concern on how far south this boundary gets before 
lifting northward again by Friday. The best possible scenario is to 
hold onto one dry day on Friday...with unsettled conds continuing 
through the upcoming Holiday weekend. One of the outliers is temperatures 
for Sunday which could be as warm as 90 degrees...or as cool as 70 
degrees and scattered/numerous shra/tsra. ..jlt.. 


&& 


Aviation.../18z taf issuance/ 


Few clouds around during period with outside chance of -shra over 
mainly western areas late tonight Tuesday morning. Will remain VFR 
through the period. Broken-over middle/high clouds west into the overnight as 
warm air advection pattern develops on the backside of the retreating high. This 
may affect eastern Minnesota later tonight. Some cumulus over the 
southeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon and again on 
Tuesday. Light winds becoming more southerly over eastern areas 
this afternoon...but remain at or below 10 knots. Increasing southerly 
winds over the west this afternoon with increasing gradient. May be 
a bit gusty at kaxn. Stronger winds Tuesday all areas with some 
gusts around 30 knots likely over the western areas. 


Kmsp...VFR conditions with a few clouds around. Perhaps a broken middle 
cloud deck developing this evening is warm air advection pattern. No rain expected 
however. Light winds becoming more southerly this afternoon 
as the surface high drifts southeast of the area. Next concern will 
be increasing winds Tuesday morning when southeast winds should gust over 
25 knots by noon. 


/Outlook/ 
Tuesday night...may be 25-30 knot gusts into the evening as gradient 
strengthens. 
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR possible in thunderstorms and rain. 


&& 


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Jlt/dwe