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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 55 °
• T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 57 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 37 °
• Fog

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
1014 am CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Discussion... 
seeing quite a bit of cloud cover already coming into the forecast area with 
a few sprinkles reaching the ground here and there. Went ahead and 
inserted some sprinkles into the forecast in the north/northwest for the 
rest of the morning hours. Afternoon forecast had some scattered 
or isolated chances of showers and possibly a few rumbles of 
thunder in the same area...which still looks fine. With the cloud 
cover looking fairly extensive am not sure temperatures will warm quite 
as much as expected. Therefore cut back a little on highs across 
the north where clouds should be the thickest. 


&& 


Aviation... 
only seeing middle and high level clouds moving into the taf sites 
right now. Still expect increasing south winds through the day...but 
they make take a little longer to develop. Breeziest winds should 
be in the middle to late afternoon. Coverage of any precipitation today looks 
to be fairly limited so any mention of showers has been limited to 
vicinity at this point and mainly at ktvf. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Short term... 


The main challenge this morning will be convective chances through 
the period...with an active pattern expected this week. Models are 
in very good agreement overall...given the fairly complex 
timing/moisture/instability issues that we will deal with this 
week. The NAM performed better with regards to 
moisture/instability with the last system...so will give the 
slight nod to the NAM this morning. 


For today...expect southerly winds to increase with a tightening 
pressure gradient and adiabatic soundings to at least 800mb...with 
30 knots to mix. It should become breezy to windy from the Valley 
West this afternoon...with increasing clouds mainly in the north 
today. There is a low chance for some isolated showers/thunder in 
the north this afternoon with increasing middle level warm air advection and 
showalters approaching 0. Temperatures should be warmest in the south 
here more sun is expected...and may be limited some in the north 
if clouds increase sooner than expected this morning. 


For tonight...precipitable waters  should increase to around an inch as a 40kt 
low level jet develops. There will be some elevated instability...with 
showalters to around -2c and 850mb cape around 500j/kg at best. 
Fairly strong middle level warm air advection and moisture transport is expected 
though...so expect at least some scattered showers and 
thunderstorms...with the best chance in the north closer to the 
warm front. 


On Tuesday/Tuesday night...elevated convection may persist in the north near a 
fairly active warm front. Surface based convection should remained cap 
through 00z...and a warm/moist warm sector is expected. Moisture 
will once again be the main challenge...but expect deeper moisture 
with this system than this weekend...with dewpoints near 60 and 
convective available potential energy around 2000 j/kg by 00z Wednesday. A strong middle level trough and 
low level jet should move into the northern plains Tuesday evening...and expect 
thunderstorms to become likely late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. 
Storms should initiate in eastern ND around 00z Wednesday...then feed 
into a 50-60kt low level jet into Minnesota Tuesday night. Shear profiles will 
increase...and there will be ample instability for some severe 
storms with wind/hail the main threats. Storm Prediction Center has included most of 
the region in a slight risk for day 2...so refer to the Storm Prediction Center web 
Page for further reasoning. Temperatures could be even warm Tuesday if the 
NAM temperatures are correct...yielding upper 80s to near 90 for some 
areas. Have not gone quite that warm...but something to monitor. 


On Wednesday...western areas could dry out some with convection 
persisting in the east near an active cold front. Temperatures will be 
cooler behind the front for all areas. 


For Wednesday night...another wave will be lifting into the area and 
expect increasing convective chances in the east and south. 


Long term (thu-sun)... 
models continue to agree with an active pattern through the end of 
the week and into the weekend. Surface low to track from east Nebraska to 
International Falls Thursday with frontogenetic forcing to provide 
def zone rain across the Red River and rest of Minnesota forecast area. Mostly dry Friday 
with pop chance increasing once again Saturday as baroclinic zone/warm 
front lifts north into the County warning forecast area. Surface low pressure center targeting 
ND on Sunday with the potential of another round of convection. 
Temperatures for the period will be cool on Thursday and Friday with highs 
in the 60s and a bit warmer for the weekend with the warm front 
passage...mostly highs in the 70s. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Godon