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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Monday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 72 °
• Low: 54 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 48 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
113 PM CDT Monday may 21 2012 


Aviation.../18z taf issuance/ 
high pressure will be rather short lived this afternoon and 
evening...as low pressure approaches once again from the northern 
rockies. Some middle clouds will increase overnight and into 
Tuesday...with scattered to broken middle clouds for the southern taf 
sites...and some possible 3000-4000 feet clouds in the north. Some 
light rain will also move into the northern areas overnight. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 1013 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Update... 


At 1000 am CDT...high pressure was centered over eastern Minnesota 
and the Central Plains. The Northland had clear skies and very 
light winds. There were broken/overcast middle/high clouds in northwestern 
Minnesota....the Dakotas...and Manitoba that were gradually 
spreading to the east. Temperatures across the forecast area were in the 
upper 50s and lower 60s. 


Think the forecast for today is mostly on track...except needed to 
increase cloud cover across the western forecast area due to the broken/overcast 
middle/high clouds spreading east out of northwestern Minnesota. Only 
made minor changes to the temperatures and winds. The previous 
forecast was calling for low chances of showers and thunderstorms 
tonight...but looking at the latest models...there is very minimal 
support for thunderstorms. It appears there will not be any 
significant instability until late tonight across the western 
forecast area...so changes most of the forecast to showers and downplayed the 
threat of storms late tonight. 


Previous discussion... /issued 644 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Aviation...05/21/12z issuance... 
isolated vlifr in fog will dissipate by midmorning. VFR clear with 
a middle-deck spreading across northeast Minnesota this evening. Scattered 
high-end MVFR in clouds and rain spreading east across the Rainy 
River valley...Iron Range and into The Arrowhead late tonight. 


Previous discussion... /issued 410 am CDT Monday may 21 2012/ 


Short term...latest surface analysis shows a ridge of high 
pressure currently over the eastern plains and western Midwest. The ridge 
has brought clearing skies...light winds and cooler temperatures 
to the Northland early this morning. This combination has resulted 
in the development of fog across the Northland...and possibly 
patchy frost with temperatures dipping into the 30s. However the fog and 
frost should quickly abate after sunrise this morning. The ridge 
will then bring mainly dry and mild conditions to the Northland as 
it drifts across the upper Midwest today. 


The ridge will give way to a low pressure system developing over 
the northern High Plains and Dakotas tonight into Wednesday. A 
stationary front extending east of the low across the international border 
will become a focus for the development of convection tonight into 
Wednesday. The showers and storms will mainly affecting our northern 
zones where qg forcing will be the strongest. 


Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s for highs 
today...and then into the 70s across most of the Northland on 
Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are expected along the Northshore due to 
onshore winds. 


Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday. 
A rather wet period with warm and moisture advection at various 
lower levels...with cooling aloft will continue through midweek this 
week through the following weekend. During Tuesday night and early 
Wednesday...a warm front struggles to lift beyond the Iron Range 
into southern Ontario...resulting in persistent overrunning rains 
north of Duluth. An active and increasingly strong...though slow 
moving cold front develops over the Red River valley Wednesday 
evening and does not get beyond our area until sometime Friday. 
Gulf moisture feeds in east of the front. As strong fronts do... 
the upper flow will tend to push moisture up and over the frontal 
surface...with a potential for substantial rain near and west of the 
front. Cold-advection wrap-around showers will spread into our area 
as another strong stationary front forms over the middle Mississippi 
Valley Friday and Friday night. Overrunning rain will spread across 
the area as a chilly onshore flow cools the area Saturday and 
Saturday night. The models differ later on...with the European 
driving a strong warm front through...with thunderstorms Sunday and 
Monday. The GFS lingers the front to our south...keeping US in a 
chilly onshore flow...with continuing rain across our area Sunday 
and Monday. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 68 47 72 52 / 0 20 20 30 
inl 70 50 74 57 / 0 50 50 60 
brd 73 52 80 62 / 0 20 20 30 
hyr 72 45 76 55 / 0 10 10 10 
asx 67 44 73 54 / 0 10 20 10 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...grochocinski 
long term....dap 
aviation...dap