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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 59 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 54 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 48 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 45 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 63 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Duluth Minnesota 
643 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Aviation...00z taf issuance... 


VFR ceilings and visibilities tonight. Low level wind shear will develop this evening as a 
strong low level jet forms across western Minnesota and slides eastward after midnight. 
Convection is initiating along a surface trough in the central Dakotas 
tonight...and the remnants will push in across the western terminals 
late tonight. A few rain showers will linger across the area 
tomorrow morning with the approach of the cold front/surface trough. 
Afternoon destabilization will allow for a few thunderstorms 
across the southwestern area...mainly brd...hib and dlh terminals with the 
best chances before 00z tomorrow evening. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 347 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012/ 


Short term...[now - Wednesday night] 


Through tonight...the low pressure system in the Dakotas will move 
to southern Manitoba...and the associated cold front will move into 
the eastern Dakotas on its path towards the Northland. Showers and 
storms are possible across the western and northern forecast area...mostly 
late tonight. Storm Prediction Center expanded the day 1 slight 
risk of severe weather to the far northwestern forecast area. The models back 
this up...suggesting some lingering instability of around 500 to 
750 j/kg across the far northwestern forecast area late tonight...remnants of 
energy from the what the storms in the Red River valley will feed 
on later this afternoon and this evening. Also...the deep layer 
shear (o-6 km) will be around 40 to 45 knots...so there may be 
some decent organization to the storms. Hail and wind will be the 
main threats. Since mostly cloudy skies will redevelop and the 
southerly winds will remain breezy...the overnight lows will be 
warm in the 50s to near 60 degrees. 


Wednesday and Wednesday night...the southern Manitoba low 
pressure system will creep into western Ontario during the day...and 
the cold front will begin to stall as it moves into Minnesota. The 
concern turns to the threat of excessive rainfall Wednesday 
afternoon through the following 36 to 48 hours. The models 
indicate the stalled front...and a low pressure system that will 
begin to swing north from the Central Plains to the Northland 
Wednesday night...will yield quite a bit of rain for much of the 
Northland. The models are actually in reasonable agreement...so 
increased probability of precipitation and hammered out some details in the weather 
forecast. The precipitable water value will increase to about 1.5 
to 1.75 inches over the Northland...so there will be a lot of 
available moisture in the atmosphere for a prolonged period of 
time. There will likely be some instability for thunderstorms 
too...such as periods of 500 to 1000 j/kg Wednesday afternoon into 
Wednesday night based on the NAM/sref/GFS. Severe storms are not 
expected...but there may be isolated strong storms with small hail 
and gusty winds. The current rainfall forecast is for up to 2 to 3 
inches from Wednesday through Thursday night...with the corridor 
of highest rainfall stretching from Northern Lake County...through 
the twin ports...to the Aitkin/Pine County border. The far 
northwestern and far southeastern forecast area could escape much of the 
rain...and only get a tenth or less of total rainfall. Forecasted 
breezy to gusty southerly winds Wednesday and highs in the 60s and 
70s. The highs may need to be adjusted lower if the cloud cover 
inhibits enough heating...but the warm overnight lows early 
Wednesday will give the region a good start to reach those 60s and 
70s. 


Long term...[thursday - tuesday] 


The potential for very heavy rainfall will continue into 
Thursday...as a slow moving front with flow parallel to the front 
continues to move across the region. A strong shortwave and 
surface low will move through on Thursday morning. The main threat 
for heavy rainfall will gradually end on Thursday afternoon as the 
low moves out of the area. Some showers and even a few 
thunderstorms will linger through the day though. Additional 
scattered showers will continue into Thursday night as a cold 
front and shortwave sweeps across the area behind the departing 
low. Earlier it looked like there would be a fairly clear break in 
the precipitation on Friday...but the latest model solutions 
actually bring some small quantitative precipitation forecast across the area Friday and Friday 
night. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) and Gem really start to ramp up the 
precipitation on Saturday...as a warm front initially south of the 
region moves to the northern portions of the region by later 
Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms should gradually become more 
likely as the weekend wears on...but then perhaps lead to a break 
as a well defined warm sector pushes into the southeast portion of the 
region behind the warm front. The models are actually in good 
agreement that a cold front will then move through Sunday night 
and Monday...bringing showers and thunderstorms from west to east 
along and behind the cold front. So far so good on the weather for 
Tuesday...with cooler temperatures behind the departing low pressure 
system/cold front. Temperatures will be highly varied throughout 
the extended as rain and clouds tend to temper some daytime highs 
and lows. But temperatures overall should be near normal or even a bit 
above normal. 


Aviation...18z tafs 


Generally VFR conditions will be found at the start of the taf 
cycle...although there will be some isolated showers and 
thunderstorms lingering across the Minnesota arrowhead region. This could 
lead to a small chance of some MVFR ceilings/visibilities in the vicinity of 
the thunderstorms. As the day GOES on...there will be decreasing 
chances of seeing showers and thunderstorms...but rain will start 
to spread back into the area from the west overnight and into 
Wednesday morning. Cloud bases will gradually lower in the 
northwest...especially in the kinl area overnight and Wednesday 
morning. 


Hydrology... 


A cold front will stall across Minnesota tomorrow and result in a 
prolonged period of heavy rain across the Northland from Wednesday 
afternoon through Thursday night. The concern is whether or not 
the region can sufficiently handle up to 3 inches over this 
time frame without resulting in flooding. Six-hour flash flood 
guidance is the lowest across Pine...Aitkin...and Carlton 
counties...which has areas of 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rainfall for 
the flash flood guidance. Since the rain will fall over a much 
longer period than 6 hours...and that the rivers are relatively 
low at this time...think the region can handle up to 3 inches over 
36 to 48 hours. However...it would not be surprising if there is 
local ponding. HPC recently places parts of the Northland in their 
slight risk of excessive rainfall. There is not enough confidence 
that the Northland will get over 3 inches of rainfall...so will 
not issue a Flood Watch at this time. However...will need to 
consider a watch for subsequent shifts if it appears the rainfall 
total for any areas...especially the south central forecast area...will 
approach 4 inches. 


&& 


Point temps/pops... 
dlh 52 69 55 67 / 20 70 90 80 
inl 56 71 53 65 / 70 50 50 70 
brd 60 72 55 67 / 70 70 90 90 
hyr 57 77 59 74 / 0 40 70 80 
asx 56 76 59 71 / 0 40 70 80 


&& 


Dlh watches/warnings/advisories... 
Minnesota...none. 
WI...none. 
Ls...Small Craft Advisory until 4 am CDT Wednesday for lsz144-145. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...tentinger