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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 55 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 46 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 46 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 54 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 
238 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Short term... 
main forecast challenge will be severe weather threat tonight 
followed by nearly constant light precipitation chances through Friday. Will use 
a model blend today for the short term forecast. 


Tonight...temperatures have taken a long time to rise once again today. 
However at 2 PM kfar had risen to 88f and kbwp to 86f. Still 
remains cooler in the northwest forecast area with several stations along the 
Canadian border still reporting middle 60s. Surface low pressure still 
over the western Dakotas with the warm front extending up into 
northeast ND. Surface temperatures have been held down a little by the middle 
and high level clouds streaming east ahead of the low. However 
there are a few metar sites reporting 60f dew points from kbis to 
kmbg to kpir. Much more broad swath of middle 50s on either side of 
this 60f dew point line. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale Page shows good cap established 
over the central Dakotas with a fair amount of cin. Probably 
looking at the upper jet nosing into the western Dakotas to help 
initiate storms late this afternoon and help kick the surface low and 
cold front to the east. Therefore have left the tonight forecast 
broken up in 3 hourly segments keeping the best chance for severe 
in the kdvl region from 00-03z and sliding toward the Red River 
valley from 03-06z. Best chances should transition into the Minnesota forecast area 
along and east of the valley Post 06z. Storm Prediction Center has the area in a 
slight risk mentioning large hail and damaging winds even a very 
low tornado risk near the surface boundaries. Models show the low 
level jet cranking up to around 60kts after dark helping to 
sustain convection overnight. Storm Prediction Center mentions the possibility of an 
mesoscale convective system forming with bowing segments possible. Looks to be an active 
night. 


Wed-Fri...not sure how fast convection will move east on Wednesday 
morning but there could still be some lingering storms in the far 
east. Western areas may see some sun on Wednesday with more clouds to 
the east. Get stuck in southwest flow for most of Thursday into Thursday 
night with several waves riding up generating precipitation just to our 
east. Not looking like a really good focus in our forecast area for precipitation but 
generally broad weaker forcing. Pretty much have low precipitation chances 
each day which has been forecast continuity now for several days. 
Stuck in a cloudy and somewhat wet and cool pattern. 


Long term (sat-tue)... 
main model differences involve track of upper level low ejecting 
from West Coast trough through the period. GFS has the more eastward 
progressive track while European model (ecmwf) lifts upper low northward through Montana. 
Either solution will result in potentially active pattern through 
the weekend as surface low pressure lifts through the region. 
Clouds/precipitation will govern temperatures with Sunday the potentially 
warmest day. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions tonight. Possible thunderstorms and rain in dvl basin 00-03z time frame 
with convection reaching valley towards 06z. Could see MVFR 
ceilings/visibility with stronger storms. Strong winds and large hail possible 
from Valley West. 


&& 


Fgf watches/warnings/advisories... 
ND...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Godon/voelker