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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 66 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 77 °
• Low: 55 °
• T-Storms

• Thursday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 52 °
• T-Storms

• Friday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 84 °
• Low: 61 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Aberdeen South Dakota 
630 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Update... 
a quick update for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Several storms 
have formed across central counties...so extended severe mention 
to cover watch area. Update to aviation discussion below. 




&& 
Previous discussion... 
short term...tonight through Thursday night 
chance for significant thunderstorms tonight continues to be the 
main forecast challenge. A low pressure system currently sits over 
the western Dakotas. A warm front stretches from west to east 
across central North Dakota...while a cold front was just along 
the South Dakota/Wyoming border...with a dryline feature along the 
western County Warning Area border. Instability is not lacking as temperatures have 
reached the middle to upper 80s across much of the area. Dewpoints 
along the Missouri River have just reached 60 degrees...while the 
rest of the area continues to see dewpoints in the 50s. Looking at 
0-6km shear values of 40+ kts and 0-1km shear values near 20 kts 
by 00z. So...atmosphere is definitely primed for the potential for 
severe weather. The biggest hindrances look to be high local/S and 
middle level capping. 700 mb temperatures are expected to reach +12 to 
+14 across the southern portion of the County Warning Area. General thinking is 
that it may be tough for storms to get going...but if any storms 
do develop...they will likely become severe. However...thinking 
best chances for this to happen will be along the northern portion 
of the County Warning Area this evening...and across the east tonight. Have 
focused higher probability of precipitation and severe mention to those areas...though 
that may need to be adjusted should anything be able to develop 
further south. 


Precipitation chances look to continue through much of the short 
term period as an upper level trough pushes energy across the 
northern plains through the end of the period. The models are in 
good agreement that a line of precipitation will develop from 
Minnesota to Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some of this 
may clip the southeastern County Warning Area...but otherwise should remain out of 
the County Warning Area. 


Slightly above normal temperatures are expected on 
Wednesday...then will see just a touch of a cool down on Thursday 
with more cloud cover expected. 








Long term...Friday through Wednesday 
main issue during the long term will be determining track and 
speed of the surface low expected to move northeast across the 
northern plains this weekend. Still a pretty decent shot for 
rainfall Friday night into Saturday night as overrunning moisture 
sets up with the surface warm front south of the region. As surface low 
gets organized Saturday night and moves northeast through 
Sunday...moisture gets pushed northward as the warm front surges 
northward as well. 12z GFS coming in line with present and earlier 
ec runs in showing a quicker departure to overrunning precipitation. 
Although...as the cold front moves through the area models are 
showing thunderstorms developing Sunday afternoon and 
evening...mainly across the far eastern/southeastern County Warning Area and 
points east. 12z ec slightly slower with the progression of the 
cold front and thus has convection developing a bit further west 
into the County Warning Area. Many details to Iron out concerning this system but 
it does appear rainfall will be a fairly good bet Friday night 
through Saturday...with more uncertainty Sunday into Monday on 
progression of cold front and eventual track of surface low. 






&& 


Aviation... 
00z tafs for the kabr...Katy...kpir and kmbg terminals 


Strong south winds through the evening and early overnight 
hours...however a wind shift behind a cold front will come in from 
the west...finally passing through Katy by early morning. The 
winds out of the northwest will be significantly lighter...however 
still breezy. Visby/ceilings should be VFR although cant rule out 
thunderstorms moving across the taf sites overnight. 




&& 


Abr watches/warnings/advisories... 
South Dakota...none. 
Minnesota...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Update...Connelly 
short term...Parkin 
long term...tmt 
aviation...Connelly 


Weather.Gov/Aberdeen