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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 52 °
• Clear

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 55 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 100 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
614 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Update... 
issued at 609 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Updated for 00z aviation forecast discussion. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through thursday) 
issued at 235 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


All 12z model guidance is in good agreement in the synoptic evolution 
through the short term period. The old upper-level low currently 
over eastern Kentucky and Tennessee will slowly move east...allowing 
heights to rise over our region. At the surface...high pressure will 
settle over the area tonight...and begin to push east of the area 
Wednesday. As low pressure develops over the plains on 
Thursday...strong southerly winds will develop across the area. A 
lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed Thursday. 


The bottom line is that there will be a significant warming trend 
through the week. One trend shown in the 12z models is for dewpoints 
to increase from the east Wednesday as winds become southeast. 
This may have some impact on daytime relative humidity...but 
should not affect low temperatures much. 


As for temperatures...we have already surpassed guidance for highs 
today...and figure that trend should hold for tomorrow and 
possibly Thursday. With the surface high overhead tonight...good 
radiational cooling should take much of the area into the middle and 
upper 40s...so undercut guidance a bit. Wednesday night should be 
about 10 degrees warmer than tonight with a light southeast wind 
and increasing dewpoints. Guidance looks a bit better...trended a 
bit above guidance in the west and a bit below it in the east. 


Long term...(thursday night through tuesday) 
issued at 235 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


GFS...Gem and European model (ecmwf) show an upper level high building over the 
Lower/Middle Mississippi and Ohio River valleys late in the work 
week. This high will remain over our region through the weekend. 
Persistent southerly flow and plenty of sunshine will allow 
temperatures to reach well above normal seasonal readings in the 
lower to middle 90s Friday through Monday...with lows in the upper 
60s to lower 70s. Both GFS and Gem show a smattering of quantitative precipitation forecast in 
portions of the pah forecast area on Sunday...while the European model (ecmwf) keeps 
US high and dry. Will keep Sunday dry for now based on the strength 
of the upper level high. 


On Monday...both GFS and Gem show surface low pressure over south 
central Canada. As the low slides east...it will drag a cold front 
across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley Monday night 
into Tuesday night. European model (ecmwf) is much slower sliding the low east and 
never really brings any precipitation into our region until possibly 
Tuesday afternoon. Leaned toward the GFS...with chances of showers 
and storms for our all but our southeast counties Monday night...and 
the entire forecast area Tuesday. This should cool temperatures down for 
Tuesday into the middle to upper 80s...which is still well above 
normal. 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon) 
issued at 235 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Surface high pressure will settle over the region 
tonight...resulting in calm or near calm winds. Should be mainly 
clear tonight after the diurnal cumulus dissipate. Cannot rule out 
some MVFR fog development throughout the area...but it should be 
most likely nearer the better low-level moisture at kowb. 


A light south wind should develop throughout the region by middle 
morning Wednesday. More cumulus is expected to develop during the 
day...mainly at kevv/kowb. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Illinois...none. 
MO...none. 
In...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
&& 


$$ 


CW