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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 64 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 73 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 95 °
• Low: 75 °
• Clear

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 
602 PM CDT Tue may 22 2012 




..updated aviation discussion... 




Discussion... 


Short range (today through thursday)... 


An increase in southerly return flow around departing area of high 
pressure over the Great Lakes has allowed temperature readings to 
push a several degrees warmer than yesterday. Trend should continue into 
the day tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens over the forecast 
area in response to an approaching area of low pressure over the 
northern plains. This combined with good daytime mixing should result 
in a gusty south wind with temperatures maxing out well into the 80s 
on Wednesday, and approaching 90 in the far southern part of the 
forecast area on Thursday. 


Slow increase in boundary layer moisture and overall instability expected 
during the next couple of days. Models similar in bringing a weak 
cold front into northern Missouri on Thursday in response to an upper 
level trough rotating through the northern plains into Canada. There 
is still some uncertainty as to exactly how far south the boundary 
will make it into the forecast area. By this time instability and 
moisture should be marginal for thunderstorms but warm mid-level 
temperatures (greater than or equal to +10 at 700 hpa) are expected 
to limit activity to northern portions of the forecast area. 


Mjm 


Medium range (friday through tuesday)... 


The main concerns in the extended will revolve around thunderstorm 
chances on Friday and again Monday afternoon into Tuesday with a 
warm Holiday weekend wedged in between the two precipitation chances. 


Friday: 
models in good agreement in the medium range as to the large scale 
pattern advertising a upper level ridge building over the 
southeastern Continental U.S. On Friday as a upper level trough digs down the 
West Coast. Closer to home on Friday a warm front will be lifting 
north across the County Warning Area. The GFS is further south with this feature 
across central Missouri than the ec/Gem which lays the front out 
across northern Missouri. On Friday a weak upper level shortwave 
will eject out from the upper level trough sparking thunderstorms 
along and north of the warm front across northern Missouri. With the 
timing of the shortwave and placement of the front a bit nebulous 
have included slight chance thunderstorms from Friday afternoon 
through Friday night across northern Missouri. 


Saturday through sunday: 
the warm front will lift north of the forecast area on Saturday 
accompanied by height rises across the area as the upper ridge over 
the southeastern Continental U.S. Builds northward into the lower Ohio and 
Tennessee River valleys. This will bring near record high 
temperatures (see climate section) to the forecast area for both 
Saturday and Sunday as high will reach into the lower 90s. 


Monday through tuesday: 
late Sunday night into Monday the aforementioned upper level trough 
will move through the northern plains into the upper Midwest. As it 
does so the trough will weaken however it will send a weak cold 
front into northwestern Missouri by Monday afternoon. Although 
moisture still seems to be fairly meager and forcing will be weak 
there will be enough instability to develop thunderstorms late 
Monday afternoon into Monday night. The front will slowly sag 
through the area with thunderstorm chances lingering into Tuesday. 


73 


&& 


Climate... 


With the potential for near record temperatures over the Holiday 
weekend, here are the normals and records through Memorial day: 


Kansas city: 
avg high/low record high records Max low 
Friday 5/25..........77/57...........92 in 1967........67 in 2010 
Saturday 5/26........78/57...........92 in 1985........68 in 1987 
Sunday 5/27..........78/58...........94 in 2006........70 in 2006 
Monday 5/28..........78/58...........93 in 2006........75 in 2006 




St. Joseph 


Friday 5/25...........79/57..........98 in 1967.........67 in 2008 
Saturday 5/26.........79/57..........94 in 1967, 1926...64 in 2008 
Sunday 5/27...........79/58..........93 in 2006, 1966...69 in 1991 
Monday 5/28...........80/58..........94 in 1998.........75 in 2006 




&& 


Aviation... 


Fro the 00z tafs...breezy winds from this afternoon have begun to 
slack off with the fading of the sun. However, a modest shortwave 
moving into the northern plains tonight will help keep a modest 35 to 
40 knot low level jet going across eastern Kansas, likely resulting 
in some low level wind shear across all the terminals tonight. Wind 
shear should dissipate as boundary layer mixing gets going Wednesday 
morning, though at this time it looks like more wind shear will be 
present again Wednesday night, just beyond this taf cycle. 


Cutter 


&& 


Eax watches/warnings/advisories... 
MO...none. 
Kansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office eax