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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 88 °
• Low: 72 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 68 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 70 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 75 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 75 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion...update to aviation 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
630 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Aviation...(00z issuance)generally VFR conditions expected through 
the period. Have put a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms and rain for coastal 
airports...with an afternoon Gulf Breeze expected to work its way 
inland. 


/16 


&& 


Short term [tonight through Wednesday night]...22.12z upper air map 
analysis shows h50-h30 trough axis over the Alabama/MS border and pivoting 
eastward. Water vapor imagery shows drier air advancing southward 
across the southern states on the west side of the middle/high level 
trough circulation which at 19z (2 PM local) was lifting across 
Georgia. Surface frontal boundary has settled to the coast with 
dewpoints having mixed down into the Lower/Middle 50s over the northern 
2/3rds of the area. Still could see a pop up storm along the coast as 
the front interacts with coastal seabreeze and better moisture where 
dewpoints range from 60-65. A few late afternoon/early evening strong 
to briefly severe storms still remain a possibility. Any severe 
storms have the potential of containing quarter to golfball size 
hail and damaging wind gusts. No rainfall expected after midnight as 
the airmass stabilizes. North of the front...nighttime lows dip down 
into the middle 50s over the interior with the coast remaining on the 
muggy side...in the upper 60s. 


Coastal front weakens on Wednesday but could very well remain the 
focus for isolated afternoon storms along the coastal counties. Away 
from storms Wednesday...highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s forecast. 
Lows Wednesday night in the middle 60s interior to upper 60s/lower 70s 
beaches. /10 


This afternoon's wet microburst risk remains low 


Long term [thursday through tuesday]...high pressure will dominate 
into early next week with an extended dry period through at least 
Sunday morning. Late in the weekend...axis of middle level ridge shifts 
up into the middle Atlantic...while on the southern periphery of the 
ridge...impulses in the easterlies track westward across Florida and 
into the Gulf. This could very well favor a rise in rain chances 
along the Gulf Coast Monday and Tuesday. For now...will remain 
consistent with previous package carrying a slight chance of showers 
and thunderstorms each afternoon Sunday/Monday and a chance area wide 
on Tuesday. Daily highs and lows similar through the period. Highs 
in the low/middle 90s interior and middle/upper 80s beaches. Nighttime lows 
in middle/upper 60s interior to close to 70 along the beaches. /10 


&& 


Marine...a weak surface ridge of high pressure will remain in place 
across the central Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday...before the 
surface ridge axis shifts eastward and extends from the eastern Gulf 
of Mexico to the East Coast late this week into the weekend. Light 
to moderate west to southwest winds will continue tonight through 
Wednesday on the north side of the surface ridge axis. Winds should 
turn more southerly to southeasterly by late Thursday as the ridge 
axis advances eastward. Moderate easterly to southeasterly winds are 
forecast this weekend as the surface ridge strengthens along the 
East Coast. Seas are expected to slowly rise this weekend due to the 
moderate wind flow. /21 


&& 


Fire weather...a weak front settles to the coast tonight and begins 
to dissipate Wednesday. Patchy light fog is possible tonight. High 
pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over the plains 
imparts a prevailing southerly flow over the area on Thursday. Deep 
daytime mixed layers the next couple days results in good dispersion. 
Isolated coastal storms possible on Wednesday with the weakening 
surface front/pressure trough nearby. /10 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 63 89 68 90 / 10 20 05 05 
Pensacola 68 88 71 89 / 20 10 05 05 
Destin 69 84 72 85 / 20 10 05 05 
Evergreen 57 90 63 92 / 00 10 05 05 
Waynesboro 56 90 64 91 / 00 05 10 00 
Camden 55 89 63 92 / 00 05 05 05 
Crestview 59 91 63 93 / 20 20 05 05 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$