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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 66 °
• Clear

• Thursday
• 
• High: 90 °
• Low: 64 °
• Clear

• Friday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 66 °
• Clear

• Saturday
• 
• High: 91 °
• Low: 70 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 93 °
• Low: 64 °
• Chance of T-Storms

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
355 PM CDT Tuesday may 22 2012 


Synopsis... 
latest surface analysis showed a 1017mb high over the Great Lakes 
with the associated ridge axis extending southwest to northern 
Louisiana. A frontal boundary was located along The Spine of the 
appalachian to South Alabama to west central Louisiana. Dewpoint 
readings were 65 to 70f south mcb to Louisiana coast. North of 
mcb to Jan...dewpoint readings were 54 to 60f. Latest water vapor 
imagery showed a disturbance east of the area over Georgia and the 
main trough axis approaching the East Coast to the central Gulf. 
In addition...another short wave was over north central Texas. 
Precipitable water value plots at 12z showed a swath of 1.3 inches 
from North Florida hugging the Gulf Coast to the Upper Texas coast 
to west Oklahoma. 


&& 


Short term... 
the frontal boundary is expected to sag south bisecting the 
forecast area tonight. Dry air will advect in across the north 
zones and allow temperatures to fall tonight. A few non-official sites 
may witness morning temperatures in the upper 50s Wednesday morning. 
Surface ridge axis will shift east of the Wednesday morning and 
southwest flow will develop from west to east Wednesday 
afternoon...one cool night according to Paul Davis across the 
north zones. 


Aloft...short wave over Texas will dive southeast over northwest 
Gulf by midday Wednesday and create a broad trough or weakness 
Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values will remain 1.3 
inches and drift north Wednesday. At the same...500 mb temperatures will 
slowly increase from -12c to -10c. Warming aloft fighting with 
increased moisture will yield isolated convection for Wednesday. 
Once short wave shift southeast...southwest flow will be present 
as 500 mb temperatures increase up to -8c. These features will inhibit 
convection Thursday. 


Long term... 
a vigorous storm will deepen along the West Coast and allow the 
Southwest/Ridge to develop into an anticyclonic circulation over 
Mississippi/Alabama. 500 mb temperatures will approach -7 to -6c Friday and 
Saturday...capping any convection and allowing day temperatures to climb 
to the 90s. GFS is aggressive with moisture and a low tracking 
across Florida onto northeast Gulf late Sunday. Will lean to Euro 
will moisture increasing slowly across the marine zones Sunday 
then rain chances across the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
expect VFR conditions through the period. Have added the mention of 
thunderstorms for btr...hum and asd for this evening. Thunderstorms 
should dissipate later on this evening as the sun sets. Otherwise 
high pressure will build in for tomorrow and VFR conditions across 
the board. 13/mh 


&& 


Marine... 
surface ridge axis from the Great Lakes to north Louisiana will 
shift east overnight with the high settling over the central Gulf 
by Wednesday afternoon. Light winds will become southwesterly by 
Wednesday afternoon from west to east. Surface ridge is expected 
to shift north over teh Carolina yielding a more southeast flow 
Thursday into Friday. East to southeast flow may persist as the 
ridge axis strengthens along the Middle Atlantic States. Result 
will be tightening pressure gradient and winds will increase in 
response to this. Expect 10 to 15 knots with seas in 3 to 4 foot 
range this weekend. 


&& 


Decision support... 
dss code...yellow. 
Deployed...none. 
Activation...none. 
Activities...providing weather information in support of chemical fire in 
West Baton Rouge Parish. 


Decision support services (dss) code legend 
green = no weather impacts that require action 
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high 
visibility event 
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused 
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support 
Orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby 
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes 
red = full engagement for moderate to high risk severe and/or 
direct tropical threats; events of National significance 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 60 89 65 89 / 10 20 10 0 
btr 65 91 68 90 / 10 20 0 10 
asd 61 90 66 89 / 10 20 10 10 
msy 72 90 71 88 / 10 20 10 10 
gpt 64 88 69 86 / 10 20 10 10 
pql 64 89 66 89 / 10 20 10 10 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$